The federal NDP are stuck in neutral while its provincial parties find momentum
Normally the federal NDP gains support when the Liberals struggle, but that doesn't seem to be happening.
FederalNDPLeaderJagmeetSingh says his party has built a "strong brand across the country" but lately, that brand appears to be doing a lot better in provincial politics than at the federal level.
In British Columbia, where Singh is one of 13 B.C.NDPMPs,Premier DavidEby'sNew Democrats areleading in the polls heading into ageneral election this fall.The provincialNDPled by WabKinewunseated the incumbent Progressive Conservatives in Manitoba last year after seven years in opposition.
Polling suggests that while the SaskatchewanNDPisn't expected to win that province's general election in the fall, it'santicipating its largest electoral gains in over a decade under leader Carla Beck.
Alberta New Democrats overwhelmingly chose former Calgary mayorNaheedNenshilast month to lead the party into the next election.Nenshiis openly floating the idea of holding a vote to separate the provincial party from its national counterpart.
And federal New Democrats hold just 24 of Parliament's 338 seats a sharp decline from the 103 seats they took when they became the Official Opposition in 2011. According to the 338Canada polling aggregation site, the federal party stands at 17 per cent nationally. The New Democrats have so far failed to capitalize on the federal Liberals' struggleto reverse their long slide in the polls.
Still, Singh said he'sbolstered by the successes of his provincial cousins.
"We've seen great breakthroughs where people have seen the horrible impact of Conservatives in Manitoba ... They rejected the Conservative [Heather]Stefansongovernment and the [Brian] Pallistergovernment before that, who cut and gut health care," Singh said at a press conference inTimmins,Ont. onMonday.
"We're seeing that in Saskatchewan. We're seeing the cuts are finally hurting people so much that they're saying we've got to look for an alternative."
So why do New Democrats seem to enjoy better luck in provincial politics?
One of the architects ofJack Layton's "orange wave"in 2011,formerNDPnational campaign director BradLavigne, said provincial New Democrats in the western provinces benefit fromwhat are essentially two-party races.
But on a crowded federal stage, and with five parties in the House of Commons,Lavignesaid, theNDPneeds to find a wayto repeat its near-sweep of Quebec ridings 13 years agoif it wants to be seen as viable in more areas.
"I think that there's a ceiling that's currently being put on theNDPfederally because it just hasn't been able to make a breakthrough in the province of Quebec," he said.
With the high cost of living front of mind for many Canadians, he said, theNDPhas an "obligation" to fight for blue collar voters being courted by PierrePoilievreand the Conservatives.
"It's a fight that I think that theNDPshould relish. It is similar to the fight that we have in western Canada,"Lavignesaid.
"When you take a look at the two competing visions of WabKinewand HeatherStefanson, the former Progressive Conservative premier, there couldn't have been a more stark difference between the two visions. And that's what we could have at the federal level, but we have to define those terms."
An organizer with PremierKinew'scampaign who spoke withCBCNews on background because they are not authorized to discuss the matter publicly said that campaign focused on "pragmatic" policy proposals.
The organizer said that while getting legislation introduced forpharmacareand subsidizeddental carewere policy wins for the federalNDP, their political impact has been modest.They suggested this is becausemany voters already have coverage through work or a private provider.
MikeMcKinnon, anNDPstrategist who has worked for premiers RachelNotleyin Alberta and JohnHorganin B.C.,saidthe provincial parties have found success through a focus on"kitchen table issues."
"[Kinew] said, 'We're going to get rid of the provincial gas tax until we get inflation under control,' Fourteen cents a litre, boom, right back into people's pockets,"McKinnonsaid.
"That is an extremely popular policy in Manitoba. It's a recognition that the thing people were most focused on at the end of each day is how much money is in my pocket."
McKinnonis volunteering on theEbycampaign. He said the B.C.NDPare taking a similar approach by zeroing in on affordability andhousing.
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One obstacle the ManitobaNDPencountered was the link between the provincial party and the federal one. The organizer said operatives on the political right have done a "good job" ofusingthe supply and confidence agreement between the federal Liberals andNDPto linkSingh and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in voters' minds.
Mount Royal University political science professor Lori Williams cited "the success of the Conservative campaign to challenge the government and to brand it as the Liberal-NDPalliance essentially, or that they're one and the same."
"As an election approaches and centrist or left-leaning voters look at the options before them and they see the possibility of votingNDPmaking it more likely for the Conservatives to gain seats, they often flock to the Liberals,"she added."So those are twin challenges that are faced by theNDPat the federal level."
With the implementation ofsubsidized dental care and thefirstpharmacarelegislation,McKinnonsaid,the federalNDPnow has an opportunity to step out of the Liberal shadow.
"It's the kind of thing where you can go to the doorstep and say, 'Without more New Democrats in Parliament, we wouldn't have this. And I want to do more of this for you.' That's the argument that theNDPneeds to make,"hesaid.
Williams said incumbent governments of all stripes around the world are struggling in the current political climate.
"It's not so much that the [Saskatchewan]NDPis ascendant, although that certainly is true in the polls. It's partly that the Saskatchewan Partyhas, as an incumbent party, made a lot of unpopular decisions," Williams said.
"So that incumbency could still affect what happens inAlberta and in British Columbia and in Saskatchewan. These multiple factors I think are quite dynamic."
Nikki Hill, a B.C. basedNDPstrategist with 25 years experience, said the party is watching this trend closely as the province's campaign period approaches.
She said this is a unique race for B.C., with four parties currently represented in thelegislature.
"The B.C. Conservatives are filling that right wing role as the B.C. United really is coming down, but B.C. United's really not giving up that fight. So we're in that unique space where it's more like a federal election,"Hillsaid.
"That's also a benefit, where there's that juxtaposition of leaders on what they really stand for."
Hill said she sees opportunity for theNDPto use the supply and confidence agreementto present itself as agovernment in waiting.
Citing the B.C. Green Party's role in helping the B.C.NDPform government in 2017, Hill said it's wiseto make use of available power in a minority government setting.
"At some point you decide you'regoing to roll that dice and take the gamble that either that gets you elected and gets you that support as government, or you've managed to bring on a really historic change,"shesaid.
"You go back to Tommy Douglas and medicare, it's like, can you get that historic change that's going to benefit Canadians for a long time?"
Lavignesaid that at some point, the federal partymustdecide if it wants to be the conscience of the House of Commons or form a government.
"Have you raised the money that it takes to win? Do you have a slate of candidates that are cabinet-worthy? Are you seeking to put organizers in the field so that you can win in all regions of the country?" he said.
"I would ask any organizer to ask themselves those questions. And if all of those questions are answered with a yes, then that party is running to win. And if there's some 'nos'in there, then I think it has some soul searching to do
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