NDP looks to take advantage of Liberals' polling slump by pushing for policy wins: sources

Knowing that the Liberals have little appetite for an election over the coming year, the NDP is looking to push the federal government for more policy concessions, party sources tell Radio-Canada.

"[The Liberals] do not want to go to an election and it shows," a New Democrat source said.

With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's team now facing a marked drop in the polls, the NDP is trying to assert itself. "We feel we have levers," the source added.

In 2022, the NDP agreed to supportthe minority Liberalgovernment in the House of Commons and stave off an electionuntil 2025 througha confidence-and-supply agreement. In exchange, the Liberals agreed to move on certain shared priorities, such as a national dental program for low-income Canadians.

But behind the scenes, Jagmeet Singh's party is now trying to secure additional concessions including housing and cost-of-living commitments in exchange for the NDP's continued support.

This account is based on two seniorNDP sources who are aware of the negotiations, along with a Liberal sourcefamiliar with the party's thinking about the timing ofthe next election.

Party sources say the NDP wants the government to announce it's renewing theGST credit forvulnerable Canadians initsfall economic statement. The two parties are also discussing measures to speed up construction of affordable housing.

When asked, the Prime Minister's Office didn't deny that New Democrats arepushing for more concessions. A PMO spokesperson said the government is in regular contact with the NDP.

WATCH |NDP to use deal with Liberals to 'force' more action on housing, Singh says

NDP to use deal with Liberals to 'force' more action on housing, Singh says

1 year ago

Duration 10:38

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh told Power & Politics Tuesday that his party is going to use the supply and confidence agreement to "force" the Liberal government to take more action on affordable housing. He says Prime Minister Justin Trudeau doesn't understand the seriousness of the housing crisis.

"We focus on our common interests rather than our legitimate differences," the spokesperson said in a French statement.

Speaking with CBC News Network's Power & Politics on Tuesday about the government's housing policy, Singh saidhis party isn't limited to the concessions in the original confidence-and-supply agreement.

"The agreement gives us the ability to negotiate and force this government to do more. Housing is one of the priorities that we have," he told guest host Travis Dhanraj.

Conversationsbetween the two parties are nothingnewbut they'vebecome more frequentin recent weeks, said bothLiberal and NDP sources.The NDP is not looking for a completely new version of the agreementbut itnow wants to getmore out of it, one partysource said.

The original agreement notably provided for the creation of a fund to accelerate the construction of housing, the implementation of a charter of rights for home buyers and a top-up to the Canada Housing Benefit in 2022.

New Democrats say they know there is a political cost to associating with the Liberal government and are looking for wins they canpresent to votersin the next federal election.

Right now, sources said, the NDP feelsit has the upper hand on the governing party.

"We feel that the Liberals want our support so that it lasts longer," said one seniorNDP source.

Election in 2024 or 2025?

InsideLiberal party ranks, the summer polls have had the effect of a cold shower. The results of an Abacus poll published on Aug. 25 suggest the Liberals are 12 pointsbehind the Conservatives nationally.

Just a few months ago, Liberal sources were quick to point to the spring of 2024 as the first possible window for holding an election. That eagerness has since evaporated andseveral Liberal sources are now talking about fall 2024 or spring 2025 as their earliest preferreddates.

Liberal insiders said they are betting on better economic news before the next electionand believevoters' anxietiesabout the cost of living couldcalm down by then. Interest rates are not likely to fall before next summer, Liberal sources said.

Some sources also suggestthat the U.S. election next fall could affectthe political dynamic on this side of the border especially if former president Donald Trump returns to power.

Faced with discouraging polls, some Liberals argue that new ministers should be given at least a year to make their marks and generateresultsthey can present to voters.

New Democrats are in no hurry

Members of Trudeau's team remember the harsh criticism they faced for calling an early election in 2021, when the country still hadn't emerged fromthe pandemic.

"No one wants to go through that again," said oneLiberal source.

As he shuffled his cabinetinJuly, Trudeau signalled that he was in no rush to call an election. "The elections are not scheduled before the fall of 2025 and we have a lot to do to deliver for Canadians," he said in French.

If New Democrats wantto capitalize on the Liberals' bad luck, they could do so by threatening toforcean election, said an NDP source.

But Singh's team seems ready to show patience. There are still elements of its agreement with the government that the NDP wants to achieve, said the source.

Some New Democrats believe a federal law to prohibit the use of replacement workers during strikescould help improve relations between the party and the labour movement. Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives are actively trying to court unionized workers.

New Democrats are also aware that forcing an electionis always a gamble. "The NDP has no advantage in calling an election to end up with a Conservative government in power," an NDP MP, who was not authorized to speak publicly, told Radio-Canada.

Some New Democratsfear that a Conservative government wouldforce a rightward policy shift, undermining any chance of advancing a progressive agenda. They warn that left-leaning voters could blameSingh if the Conservative Party is swept into power.