Erin O'Toole wants his party to find a 'balance' between conservatism and populism. What if it doesn't?

Erin O'Toole, who was dumpedas Conservative leader in February, soundsa littleworried these days.

"Whoever the next leader is they will have to get the balance right between conservative, traditional policies and populism," O'Toole told CBC Radio's The House in an interview airingthis weekend.

"And I believe as leaders we have to channel people's frustrations into positive change, not add fuel to the fire."

O'Toole related an anecdoteaboutgoing to a recent community gathering in his riding.

"People are coming up to me with things they're reading on social media, conspiracies and ideas and frustration. What I try and do is say, 'OK, let's sort through that because what you're seeing is not correct,'" he said. "Whoever wins will have to get that balance right."

Citing the influence of American culture and the effects of Western alienation, rural issues and pandemic fatigue, O'Toole said Conservatives need to "come up with positive change, not add to the anger."

"Anyone that wins will have to strike that right balance for the well-being of the country. That's what I was always trying to say to my caucus."

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He said he hopes the next Conservative leader will "realize that the country is in a fractious statebut provide a plan to heal those divisions."

O'Toole's comments raise important questions for his party and for the candidates competing to succeed him as leader.

They also point to a big question for moderate Conservatives what will they do if the next Conservative leader doesn't strike the right balance?

A warning about the 'populism of anger'

What O'Toole is saying now is reminiscent of what he was saying earlier this yearwhen it became clear he would face a vote on his leadership. At that time, he said the Conservative Party had to choose between two pathsbetween being "angry, negativeand extreme" andbeing a party of "inclusion, optimism, ideas and hope."

O'Toole has stayed out of the party's leadership race and still refrains from commenting onspecific candidatesor proposals. But his interview with The House follows some pointed comments he made last week on a podcast hosted by Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith.

"There's always going to be an element of populism to politics there will be, 'What are people passionate about?'" O'Toole told Erskine-Smith. "But what I worry about is with the populism of anger or frustration or dislocation that can undermine institutions, it can undermine national unity. And so I think this is something all candidates have to be aware of."

O'Toole pointed to "some of the stuff on the Internet about the World Economic Forum and things like this." (The World Economic Forum is a perennially popular topic of conspiracy theories.)

"These are where people want to attribute blame to something This is where you have to be very careful,not presenting some bogeyman as the reason why you're having trouble paying the bills or something with inflation," he added.

"Presenting a plan to tackle these problems is what I think a Conservative needs to do You have to present your solutions to those problems and try and kind of transform that frustration into positive action, as opposed to just adding to the frustration."

'We're not completely immune'

All the leadership candidates are seeing public angst, O'Toole said, and they need to handle it responsibly. Fiinding a balance between traditional conservative principles and "this populist element," he said,is something that "all right-of-centre parties in democracies are struggling with."

He said it was sad to see what was happening to traditional conservative partiesin France and in the United States.

"I think Canada, we've been largely immune from some of this, but we're not completely immune. And I think all members of our party, particularly elected officials I've often said we cannot let the tail wag the dog. We have to present responsible leadership, responsible solutions and try and transform that frustration into positive action," O'Toole said.

But what if the tail does end up wagging the dog? What if the next Conservative leader doesn't offer responsible leadership? What wouldO'Toole do then?

Thedecisionthat may facemoderate Conservatives

We have come a long way from the days when senior figures in a party could exert decisive influence over leadership contests and that's mostly a change for the better. But that doesn't meanMPs and party elders are powerless or absolved ofresponsibility when the democratic selection of a new leader takes the party in a politically risky or even dangerous direction.

They could, for instance, quit the party. Or speak out. Or both.

The Conservative Party's own history will always frame these questions in terms of party unity. If the party takes a hard turn to the populist right and subsequently slumps in opinion polls, Conservatives will worry about theirelectoral prospects. But such a shiftin political polarizationcould also point to broader questions about the health of Canadian democracy.

O'Toole and other Conservatives would surely say that if anyone is to blame for political angst and division, it's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. That's debatable. But even if you think it'strue, it only puts a greater onus on other leaders to act responsibly to notpromote division, entertain conspiracies or undermine institutions.

This isn't anabstract concern. In How Democracies Die, Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt reflect on the value of "guardrails" in a democracy. While they acknowledge that the American primary system has made it impossible for parties to absolutely block a presidential candidate, they argue that Donald Trump might have lost the 2016 election had Republican leaders"broken decisively" with him and endorsed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

The Republican Party has wandered so far astray that it defies comparison. Even raising it as a point of reference might seem to exaggerate any problem that might exist in Canadian politics. But partisans need not wait for someone like Donald Trump to come along before asserting themselves.

The next leader of the Conservative Party may heed O'Toole's advice. The Conservative movement in Canada may avoid the fate of its distant cousins in other countries.

But if the partymoves out of balance, Conservatives like O'Toole will have some decisions to make.