The Pollcast: Jason Kenney vs. Justin Trudeau

The polls say that Jason Kenneyhas a very good chance of becoming Alberta's next premier in Tuesday's provincial election. That would have a big impact on relations between Edmonton and Ottawa; it also could play a significant role in October's federal election.

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Rachel Notley, the incumbent premier and Alberta NDP leader, has had a delicate relationship with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal government an ally on climate change and pension reform but an uneasy partner on pipelines. If relations between the two levels of government have become more difficult over time, they're likely to get even more combative if Kenney's United Conservatives win next week's vote.

Not only has Kenney pledged to get rid of the province's carbon tax and lift the cap on greenhouse gas emissions for the oilsands, he has said he would hold a referendum on equalization if the federal government doesn't make any changes to the equalization formula.

To discuss the potential implications of a Kenney premiership on the state of the federation and the Liberals' re-election strategy in October,Pollcasthost ric Grenier is joined by the CBC's Aaron Wherry and Vassy Kapelos, host ofPower & Politicson CBC News Network.

Listen to the full discussion above or subscribe to the CBCPollcastand listen to past episodes of the show.