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'Real change' comes early to Liberal promises

Justin Trudeau wraps up the year with many of his campaign promises on a collision course with reality. In response, many pledges are fading into mere hopes.

Hopeful campaign goals on a collision course with reality

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau speaks at a campaign stop in Brampton, Ont., in September. As a prime minister, the view from the podium seems different. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

Promises? Those were goals, not promises!Totally different!

From ships and planes to deficits and refugees, many of Justin Trudeau'spromises are being comprehensively Photoshopped.

And thefolks atAdobe, creators of the photo-editing software, clearly received their licence fee, because theprogram is running fine.

For deficit numbers, select the colour red and crank it up. For refugees, erase the deadline.

And, for CF-18s, just blur the outlines until nobody has a clue what the policy is.

Still bombing: CF-18s in action again

Let's begin there.From northern Iraq, we hear ofa battle near Mosul on Dec. 17. AnISIS offensive was beaten back by Kurdish forces, aided by Canadian trainers on the ground and two CF-18s in the air.

Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan told reporters in London Friday that Canada's plan to withdraw its six CF-18s and focus on training local ground forces remains unchanged, even after the jets helped repel a major attack by ISIS in northern Iraq. (CBC)

Visiting London, Defence Minister Harjit Sajjanapplauded.

"Our CF-18s have played a significant role," said the Afghan combat veteran. "They just happened to be on station at that time."

"Very fortunately, it happened to be our jets. I would have loved to be able to have our jets when I was in combat in Afghanistan," he said. "Very fortunately, in this case here, our CF-18s were there.It also goes to show the great capability of our CF-18 pilots."

So: our trainers are fortunatethat Canadian planes werethere to back them up.Why, then, do the Liberals wantto pull themout?

To date, neither Trudeau nor his ministers haveexplained why, exactly,the bombing of ISISis something Canada should not do. We only know that they keep promising not to do it.

The former chief of defence staff, retired generalRickHillier, isone of those who are baffled.

"I haven't heard the clear articulation yet of why we would bring home thoseCF-18s,"Hilliertold CBC Radio's The House.

"I think what happened these last several days underscored the fact that this entire military mission isunder-resourced. More resources are needed in the military fight, not less."

We'll be out in 6 months?

But, if that's unexplained, what explains the fact thatwe're still bombing while promisingto stop?

Explaining this is hard, and the defence minister has been struggling with it. Hetold the Huffington Post that pulling out the CF-18s would decrease the coalition's firepower, which he doesn't want to do suddenly.

The Liberals have been reluctant to put a firm date on their pledge to pull Canada's CF-18 fighter jets from the fight against ISIS, making the promise a moving target. (Department of National Defence)

"For us to just make a snap political decision and extract right away, right now,it will decrease capability."

He went on, "We want to make sure that it is done in a manner that it does not decrease the capability within the coalition's air package."

Well, OK then. Plainly, thegovernment has just not figured out how to square the evident utility of the bombing with the promise to end it.

Sajjan, though, insists thatthe jets will be withdrawn in "less than six months."Which is interesting,because he didnot pledge to withdraw them by the end of March, when the mission's existing mandateexpires.

"Less than six months," in other words, suggestsan extension of the bombing, notthe end of it.

Promises, promises

Benching the CF-18s, though, is only the latest Liberalpledge to get a makeover.

Already, the pixelation of the first promise seems likeancient history. The plan to bring in 25,000 Syrian refugees by the end of the yeargot the Photoshoptreatmentjust 20days after the swearing-in. Poof! The deadline was deleted and reappeared at the end of February.

Immigration Minister John McCallum has had to walk back from a promise to bring in 25,000 Syrian refugees by year's end, and has faced questions about the revised pledge of 10,000. But so far, Canadians seem to be giving the government some slack. (Bilal Hussein/Associated Press)

No doubt, thatamended promise will also be adjusted in its turn. But who's complaining?The government's critics always said the deadlinewas impossible, so they can hardly object that it's not being met. So far, Canadians seem content to see the promise kept on a more realistic schedule.

Trudeau's fiscal promises are a differentstory.

"We're leaving these commitments in the dust," said Tory finance criticLisa Raittin the first question period of the new Parliament. And, indeed, the Liberals'commitment to cap thedeficitat $10 billion has been reconfiguredas a nice idea, not a promise.

In a two-step process, the Liberals first re-enacted the ritual discovery that the previous governmenthad left the cupboard bare. Then, theysaid the $10-billion deficit cap was merely a hope.

Instead, we are told, the key is to keep the debt-to-GDP ratiogoing down. Which just happens to allow for deficits as high as$25 billion.

But don't be alarmed! "We hope for and are certainly striving towards modest deficits of $10 billion every year," said Trudeau, addingthat"at the same time, we committed on an ongoing basis to keep you apprised if the situation worsened."

And ... promise kept! The government did, indeed,keep us apprised that the situation had worsened partly because stillanother promise was Photoshopped.

Revenue neutrality is so last week

Remember the "revenue-neutral" tax cut? They airbrushed out the neutral part.

Trudeausaidhis tax cut for the middle class would be offset by the tax hike for the rich. But itdepends what you mean by "offset." If you mean, "not even close," no problem. The tax cut will actually cost $3.4 billion a year, but the tax hike will only raise $2 billion. Do the math.

True believers, of course, will count theother promises that the government is keeping or trying to keep: anew deal for First Nations; scientists unmuzzled; the return of the long-form census; a parade of talented women in the cabinet; and anattack on climate change. OK, that one's just a promise, but still.

Naysayers will add on still other commitmentsthat are headed for the dustbin. The huge savings from not buying the F-35? An illusion, say the experts meaning the resulting boost for shipbuilding is also fiction.

But why spoil the honeymoon? Christmas is coming and Trudeau still flies high. In the New Year, though, he may need that airbrush again.