Statistics Canada could text questions to confront 'alarming' drop in response rates

Forget checking your mailbox for future Statistics Canada questionnaires and instead be ready to check the text-message inbox on your cell phone.

Texting questions to Canadians is one of several options the agency is considering to confront an alarming drop in response rates to surveys declines that are "threatening the quality of official statistics" and could "soon lead some to question the usability of the data itself."

The deteriorating quality of data was a key theme for chief statistician Wayne Smith when he delivered an address to staff in February, according to a copy of his speaking notes and presentation obtained by The Canadian Press under the Access to Information Act.

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The agency has already started using online questionnaires like the 2016 census to collect the information researchers and policy makers use to identify social, financial and economic trends, and plan for new schools or hospitals.

Geoff Bowlby, the director general who oversees data collection work at the agency, said Statistics Canada has also tested using text messages to connect with Canadians who more and more are eschewing land lines but are less likely to want to spend time on their cell phones verbally responding to survey questions.

"If we did, what is the best way to text message, what kind of information would be in a text message. These are some of the things we're studying with cell phones," Bowlby said.

It's one way the agency is looking to raise response rates, which are crucial for Statistics Canada. When the response rates are too low, the data becomes unreliable and unusable, which is why the agency withheld data on thousands of small communities from the voluntary long-form census in 2011.

Raising response rates

This census cycle appears to be different. Statistics Canada spokesman Peter Frayne said early indications show the response rate for the short form census is around 98 per cent, although that figure could change slightly once forms come back from northern and First Nations communities where response rates tend to be lower.

There is no consensus on how low response rates can drop before results become unusable. Some voluntary social surveys Statistics Canada uses have response rates of less than 50 per cent, while the community health survey has a response rate of close to 80 per cent and all are considered usable, said Doug Norris, who spent nearly 30 years at Statistics Canada.

Michael Wolfson, a former assistant chief statistician, said low response rates tend to mean some groups like the poor aren't providing any information, which makes the results not representative of the population something policy makers rely on for planning and crafting legislation.

Statistics Canada creates the fact base governments and business use on a regular basis, Wolfson said: "Data quality is paramount."

For years, Statistics Canada has cold-called Canadians on their land lines, asking questions while respondents sat comfortably in their homes.

Cold-call concerns

Cold-calling cell phones hasn't worked as well because the phones' owners could be on a bus or in a work meeting, which could limit their interest or make them feel uncomfortable giving out personal information in a public place.

Smith, in his February speech, said the status quo for data collection was unsustainable, especially with more demands on the agency in the era of "big data" and a new Liberal government that wanted to make evidence-based decisions.

His presentation touched on some of the large data gaps that existed in key policy areas for the new government, including labour market participation, particularly for aboriginals, the health of children under age 12, innovation and e-commerce, the environment, and energy.

To mitigate some of the problems, Statistics Canada is turning to data the government already holds such as tax and benefit statistics and connecting them in new ways to learn something new. Earlier this year, researchers pored over hospitalization, employment and taxation databases to learn about the financial effects of hospital stays due to illness.

"Survey data and getting out and asking people about things is an important source of data that administrative data will never answer," said Norris, senior vice-president at Environics Analytics.