Stephen Harper seeks rivals' advice on Quebec election

With the possibility of a majority Parti Qubcois government for the firsttime in almost a decade, federal parties are closely watching the Quebecelection.CBC News has learned that earlier this week, when the prime minister andthe leader of the Official Oppositionmet to discuss Ukraine, the prime minister also asked Tom Mulcair for his take on the election.

Mulcair is a longtime Quebec politician with direct knowledge of theplayers, so Stephen Harper took the opportunity to ask the NDP leaderabout thepossible outcome of the April 7 vote and the chance of a sovereignty referendum.

When asked about the meeting, Harper's and Mulcair'soffices would only say the official topic of conversation was Ukraine and the meetingwas private.

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Sources also told CBC News the prime minister spoke to Liberal leader Justin Trudeau at length and the Quebec election was raised. Liberals have a history of fighting for national unity.

There are also reports the Harper reached out to premiers across the country. The Prime Minister's Office would not confirm any private meetings.

In all his time as prime minister, Harper has never faced amajority PQ government or the very real threat ofareferendum.

Harper has a good relationship withMaroisand respectsher, butthings might getmore difficult for the prime minister if Marois's party wins a strong majority, warnsAndr Bachand, who wasHarpers senior Quebec adviser up until this fall.

"I think the relationship will be a little bit harder between the premiers officein Quebec and the PM's office in Ottawa if there is a majority government,"saidBachand.

Conservatives have only 5 QuebecMPs

Undoubtedly, it will also be harder given Harper only has five Quebec MPsand the Conservative Party itself is not particularly popular in the provinceright now.

Mulcair, on the other hand, has decades of experience as a Quebecpolitician, was a cabinet minister for Jean Charest and was in the province during the last two referendums in 1980and 1995.

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He knows these players.

"I've known Pauline Marois for more than 30 years," Mulcair said,"She's aredoubtable political figure, and she's showing that."

Mulcair is careful with his language because he has much at stake duringthis election,too.

He shares some voters with Marois, those with progressive and soft-nationalist leanings, and he can't risk upsetting them.

Marois might not risk it

One of Harper's former Quebec ministers and senators, Michael Fortier, iswarning all parties to be careful.

"The horse we all have in the race is that there is not a third referendum,"saidFortier.

I think her generation, they suffered two losses, and they know a thirddefeat would likely be the end of the story,- MichaelFortier, former Quebec senator, minister

Fortier, now a vice-chairman at RBC Capital Markets in Quebec, saysthere is something else to keep in mind: Marois likes her job and won'tnecessarily risk another referendum.

"I think her generation, they suffered two losses, and they know a thirddefeat would likely be the end of the story," he said. "They don't want this to be theirlegacy. And I don't think there will be a referendum unless the PQ believethey can win it."

Bachandagrees with that take, but he also says thereis something else the prime minister will have to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

"The thing we need to watch is not the reaction of governments, butthereaction of people elsewhere in Canada who might say quite clearly to the prime minister, 'Stop talking [to] those people in Quebec because they want todestroy Canada."

All three major federal parties may well find themselves knocked off theirown agendas and facing a common cause in Quebec in the weeks andmonths ahead.