Syrian refugees pose low risk, but no reason to rush process, experts say

Justin Trudeau'splan to resettle 25,000 Syrian refugees in Canada by the end of the year has raised concerns about whether the prime minister's adherence to the fast-approachingdeadline could compromise the security of the country.

Citing the deadly attacks in Paris,SaskatchewanPremier Brad Wall on Mondaycalled on Trudeau to suspend his plan, arguing that"ifa small number of individuals who wish to do harm to our country are able to enter Canada as a result of a rushed refugee resettlement process,the results could be devastating."

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While Trudeauhas dismissed such concerns, some security experts suggest that trying to process that many refugees insuch short time is not without risk, however slight, and thatthe prime minister doesn'tneedto rush the effort.

"Ivery much hope thatintheend,that they will have removed Dec.31 as part of theplanandsay, 'We''re going to do it and we'll get it done when we get it done,'" said Peter Showler, theformer head of Canada's Immigration and Refugee Board.

As for whether Canadians shouldbe concerned aboutsecurity risks from Syrian refugees, Showler said, "Iwould say no until you put in '[coming]by the end of the year,' and thenIwouldsay Idon'tknow."

The evidence, so far,that refugees poserisks in North Americahas been scant. Arecent article in the Economist points out that of the 745,000 refugees resettled in the U.S. since Sept.11, only two have been arrested on terrorism-relatedcharges, and those had not planned any kind of attack. Meanwhile,Canada has taken in nearly 265,000 refugees from 2005 to 2014.

However, those refugees underwent a rigorousscreening process, one thatcan takeyears. Trudeau is hoping to resettle 25,000 refugees in a matter of weeks.

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"I'm hoping that we will perhapsdeceleratethe intake a little bit," saidRayBoisvert,former CSISassistantdirector of intelligence.

While therisk to Canadians is relatively small,within thatgroup of 25,000 peopletherewill be a very small percentage of individuals whowould be considered potential threats to security,Boisvertsaid.

"There could be people in that flow that might or may not be engineered to be there on behalf of ISIS, but could be verysympatheticand could be highly radicalized," Boisvertsaid.

Risk in cutting corners

Kyle Matthews, the senior deputy director for the Montreal Institute for Genocide and Human Rights Studies at Concordia University, said there's a very small risk to Canadians, but that thegovernment's goal is "very ambitious" with only weeks remaining to screen and processeveryone.

"I'm not too sure that that can be achieved that quickly,' he said."You have to do it as best as you can asquicklyas you can, but youshouldn'tcut corners."

If the government gives itself a bit more time,Showlersaid, Canada could still identify, screen andprocess25,000 low risk refugees relatively quickly.

"There are certain objective criteria where youcan ID a very large group of refugees, all of whom would be in extremely low-risk securitycategories," Showler said.

Unlike refugees flowing into parts of Europe, who undergo no security reviews,any Syrianrefugeecoming into Canada faces a three-phase security screen. In the first phase, refugees are selected from a large pool by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Of those,theUNHCRchoosesonly one to two per cent to go into a resettlement pool, Showler said.

The UNHCR looksfor those who are deemed less risky women, children andthose who may have sustained injuries from the conflict. But most importantly, anyone who could raise security markers, is associated withanyjihadi groups or involved directly in the conflict, would be rejected, he said.

Refugees are then referred to a visa officer for an interview to determine if there are inconsistencies in their stories. From there, Canadian immigration officials work with the Canada Border Services Agency, the RCMP and CSISto carry out security checks.

"I don't want to pretend that for this 25,000 that they wouldbe going through the same program. I think they're going to have to do something different if they are going to be doing it speedily," he said.

UN records on refugees

But Showler pointed out thatUNHCRalready has good records onthousands of Syrian refugees, opposed to the Bashar al-Assaddictatorship, who fled four years agowhen the conflict started before ISIS joined the fray, who are secular, professional urban middle-class and democratic.

Part oftheway to mitigate a great number of potentialrisks around the missing of key information frombackground checks is to invest in people onthe ground, Boisvert said.

"Haveto do it posthaste. Secondly,will haveto ensure CBSA and CSIS and theRCMP are using advance analytics, using technology to come upwith a risk score around every individual."

The government has not yet provideddetails onhow it will implement its refugee plan.ButShowler said it shouldprovideasystemthatcan be fast and hasreasonablesecurity measures in place, "where Canadianscan beassuredthatthe refugeescomingin here are ones that are in need and willnot pose a risk."