The Three Amigos: Whistling past the graveyard?

"We must, indeed, all hang together, or most assuredly we shall all hang separately."
Benjamin Franklin at the signing of the U.S. Declaration of Independence, 1776.

You knew they would hang together, and they did. Justin Trudeau, Barack Obama and Enrique Pena Nieto all stood up for closer economic integration and against the blistering winds of disintegration that whirl around the globe.

"Working together always beats going it alone,"Trudeaudeclared.

Obamaargued thatresistance toglobalizationis futile:"The integration of national economies into a global economy that's here!That's done!"

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Obamaconceded that inequality is "a legitimate gripe." But in an implied shot at aprotectionist Donald Trump he added that"pulling up the drawbridge" is "the wrong medicine."

Still, the outcome of this contest of ideas hardly seems like asure thing. The other side of the argument is having a good year.

It can't happen here

Canadians under the spell of a hip new government may see the creeping fondness for building wallsas a foreign phenomenon a freak show on the evening news.The British turn their backs on Europe and on immigrants of all kinds. The Chinese andRussian dictatorships tighten their grip and build up their defences.Nativistleaders rise in eastern Europe and the Islamic world burns from Libya to Pakistan.And, in the United States, Donald Trump stands ready to tear upNAFTA, wall off Mexico and ban Muslims.

But we're more sophisticated, right?

Obama on Brexit

8 years ago

Duration 1:59

U-S President Barrack Obama spoke at the closing news conference of the North American Leaders summit in Ottawa

Perhaps. That's what British Prime MinisterDavid Cameronthought about his own people when he ordered up theBrexitreferendum. And that's what the entire American establishment thought when Donald Trump first ran for president.

Likewise, theleftist longshot SenatorBernie Sanders.And now? Everybody sits up and listens when Sanders says about Brexit,"Could this rejection of the current form of the global economy happen in the United States? You bet it could."

Walls are the rage

But it's already happening. Hillary Clinton has gone cold on NAFTAher husband's signature trade agreement and she's done a U-turn on the TPP the transpacific deal that she heartily endorsed as secretary of state. Constancy may not be her strong suit, but knowing which way the wind blows is.

So the wind will keep blowing. Whoever becomes the next U.S. president, there will be no free ride for the animating principles of the postwar order co-operation among nations and the tearing down of barriers to trade, people,ideas and capital. These small-l liberal aspirations no longer appeal, if they ever did, to the 13 million who've already voted for Trump or to the 17 million who voted for Brexit.

In thatsense, the brotherlyphoto-op of Trudeau with Obama and PenaNieto tells us the opposite of what's really happening. They're trying to build bridges whenwalls are all the rage. They're giving us more NAFTAwhile their critics on both the left and right are making ita dirty word.

Obama: 'The world needs more Canada'

8 years ago

Duration 1:21

Obama: 'The world needs more Canada'

Simultaneously, Obama's time is ticking away and Pena Nieto, having droppedthe ball on corruption, security and human rights, has seen his disapproval rating reach an unprecedented 66 per cent. That's even higher than Trudeau's approval rating, now around 62 per cent.

Of the three, then, only Trudeau seems to have the wind at his back and, for the most part,Canadians are properlygobsmacked that the British told the European Union to take a hike.

But a handful of Conservatives Jason Kenney, Maxime Bernier and Tony Clement have actually hailed Brexit as a triumph and, when it's our own trading bloc that's at issue, Canadians suddenly get less keen on free trade. In a recent Angus Reid Institute poll, only a quarter of us thought NAFTA hadany benefit at all.

It's also worth recalling that we had an election on free trade, back in 1988, and the anti-free traders would have won by the same margin as Brexit if they hadn't split the vote.

Yes, Brian Mulroney's Conservatives won that election. But, just like the 52 per cent who voted for Brexit, 52 per cent of Canadian voters chose parties opposed to free trade with the United States 32% for the Liberals and 20% for the NDP. On a binary, yes-or-no question, the free traders likely would have gone down in flames.

Call the Brexiteers a bunch of yahoos if you like but don't say it couldn't happen here.

Get rich, then buy my stuff

Now, in Ottawa, the Three Amigos have made a stand for an integrated future, adding what they can to the partnership.Canada will stop forcing Mexican visitors to get visas. Mexico will open its doors to Canadian beef. Both will join the U.S.in cutting methane emissions.

But are they winning the argument about fundamentals? For decades, conventional economics has decreed that aricher you makes a richer me. If youbuy more of my stuff, I can afford more of yours so freer international trade is good by definition.

Now, that definition is under siege. President Obamasays he will "push back." But history suggests that protectionism is nopushover.

The Three Amigos will need a lot more amigos.

• Amigos today, enemigos tomorrow?