Ukraine crisis: Should Canada push the West to provide weapons?

"To jaw-jaw is always better than to war-war."
- Winston Churchill,1954

Before brokering the latest sputtering ceasefire, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned the hawks, both in Washington and across the Ukrainian diaspora, about arming Kyiv'sforces tobattle Russian-backed separatists.

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"I cannot imagine any situation in which improved equipment for the Ukrainian army leads to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin being so impressed that he believes he will lose militarily," Merkel said on Feb. 7 at the Munich security conference.

Sitting besideMerkel two days later, U.S. President Barack Obama punted.

"If in fact diplomacy fails, what I've asked my team to do is look at all options," Obama said. "The possibility of lethal defensive weapons is one of those options."

Standing beside Merkelafter that, Prime Minister Stephen Harper kicked the same political football.

"Well look at all options. But obviously well proceed extremely cautiously in partnership and collaboration with all of our allies," hesaid.

Jason Kenney, Harper's new defence minister, has been quoting that line ever since.

"We don't have huge stockpiles of equipment to supply," Kenneytold CBC Radio's The House. "We're not going to do anything... without a consensus from our allies. We will not act alone."

What's on the table?

WhenUkrainian PresidentPetroPoroshenkocame to Ottawa last fall, his main request was for radar satellite technology, Kenneyemphasizes.

An agreement on that with the condition that it not be used for targeting, something it's not designed for anywaywas just signed.

But Ukraine's wish list doesn'tstopthere.

Poroshenko's deputy foreign minister, VadymPrystaiko, told The Houselast weekend Ukraine wants Canada to lead the charge towards persuading allies to supply lethal weapons and the training to use them.

Deputy speakerAndriyParubiywas in Ottawa Monday, also lobbying.

On Tuesday, British Prime Minister David Cameron announced that four teams of up to 75 British soldiers are heading to Ukraine to provide advice and training.The U.S. is expected to lead a training mission, too.

Kenneyhas saidCanada is "actively considering different options for engaging."

I wouldn't expect Minister Kenney to get out ahead of everybody else... to say 'yeah, we're going first, just watch us go.'- Yaroslav Baran, former Harper adviser and pro-Euromaidanactivist

After controversy in northern Iraq, where Canadian trainers"firedback," the mandate for Canadian forces will be scrutinized.

"Firing back" at Russian (or proxy Russian) troops would escalate tensions to an even more serious level.

Prystaiko, who until last fall was Kyiv's ambassador in Ottawa,left his postfrustrated.

"Iraqs government is asking for help and youre sending everything. Then the Ukrainian government asks you the same and you tell us what? 'No,'" he said then.

Undeterred, he's still asking.

'Problem' with Merkel'slogic

Thelatest briefing note from the Ukrainian Canadian Congress to MPs is blunt: Ukraine needs defensive weapons, and it's the West's lack of provision of these weapons that "fuels Russia's escalation."

YaroslavBaran, a former Harper adviserwho is the group's Ottawa president, said the best thing a middle power like Canada can do is lead the discussion among Western allies about doing more in the face of Russia's willingness to armthe separatists.

"I wouldn't expect Minister Kenney to get out ahead of everybody else... to say 'yeah, we're going first, just watch us go.' That's never really been Canada's role and it's not the best way we can help," Baran said.

Should NATO do more? "Absolutely.

"Whenever the hardware is more balanced the fighting has actually subsided."

"That's the problem with Chancellor Merkel's logic," he added. "There isa very real deterrence capability in helping to re-equip the Ukrainian forces with (...) anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems."

Too late for weapons?

"Unless there's a prospect of years of war, and I don't think there is, it's already very late in the game to be reinforcing Kyiv's ragtag forces. The Western cavalry is long overdue," says former diplomat and Russian ambassador Chris Westdal.

Westdalagrees it's possible, as Ukrainians have warned, rebels will nowpush southto secure the strategic port of Mariupol.

After that, thefighting may stop and stalemate."Then there's a credible ceasefire line."

Weapons sentnow could arrive after the shooting's over.

But when it comes to courting Ukrainian-Canadian voters, "you bet [Kenney] cares about Ukraine,"Westdalsaid.

If we think we're isolating the Russians, think again- former diplomat Chris Westdal

On Monday, the minister posedfor pictures and showed off his best Ukrainian phrases as the guest of honour at an event marking one year sincetheEuromaidanprotest.

"Canada has led the world in sanctions against the Putin regime,"Kenneytold attendees. "This is why Prime Minister Harper led theG8in expelling Vladimir Putin from that world body of leadership."

Theleadership on sanctions is disputed. Some argue powerful Russians who deal with Canadian companies like Bombardier arenot on Canada's list.

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The Ukrainian Canadian Congress also wantsRussia removed from the SWIFTinternational bank transfer payments system.

Russia, meanwhile,mocksCanadian sanctionsas "futile."

"If we think we're isolating the Russians, think again,"Westdalsaid. Russia just pivots,focusingon emerging economies like India and China.

Neither fighting, nor talking

Harper has not spoken to Putin since theirheadline-grabbing handshake at November'sG20summit, when all he had to say was "get out of Ukraine."

The "jaw-jaw" is Merkel's job. But must Canadademonstrate it could"war-war"?

Westdalthinksthe cross-party support for the government's position on Ukraine is surprising, given itisn't coherent.

"We're neither arming them, nor are we equipping them to talk. Wehave shunned the people theyneed to talk to," he said. "What do we think they should do?"

"We've been their best friend: 'Count on us.' We've encouraged the Ukrainian nationalism.

"I do think that we led them to overestimate the support that they'd get from the West... and underestimate the cost of picking a fight with Russia. Which they did."