Skeptical motorists, shortage of charging stations the biggest obstacles in Ontario's electric car plan

Ontario is on the right path to accommodate theboost in the number of electric vehicles onthe province'sroads that the government hopes to seein the coming years, say industry analysts.

But there are still challengesahead, includingincreasingthe number of fastcharging stations available andconvincing skeptical motorists to embraceelectric cars.

Electrical vehicles are not a passing fad.- Brian Millar,spokesman forPlug'nDrive

"To get thatinfrastructureinplace now is going to be critical," said Brian Millar,a spokesman for Plug'nDrive, an advocacy organization for electricvehicles. "Otherwise,wewill wake up one day andrealize'Oh darn,we don't haveany electrical vehicleinfrastructure.

"Electrical vehicles are not a passing fad. Theywilljustincrease inpopularity."

Earlier this week, Ontario Premier KathleenWynneunveiled the Liberal government's $8.3 billion climate change plan, which aims to seeelectric cars make up five percent of new vehicle sales by 2020.

According to the plan,Ontario will continue to offer rebates of up to $14,000for electric vehicles, including up to $1,000 for installing a homecharging station, and will provide free overnight charging forresidential customers for four years, starting in 2017.

The province is looking to make it mandatory forall new homes andtownhomeswith garages tohavea 50-amp, 240-volt receptacle (plug) in the garage for the purpose of charging electric vehicles. Also, as of 2018,all newly built commercial office buildings and workplacesthat can accommodate itmust provide charging infrastructure.

14,000 electric cars sold annually by 2020

Millar admits the difficulty in selling the province's plan willbeconvincing taxpayersto accept thatthe government will be spending millions of dollarsto support a venturethat, so far, represents a small fraction of the automobile market.

Out of the roughly 248,000 vehicles sold inOntario annually,around 2,800 are plug-inhybrid cars and3,700 fully electric vehicles, according to the province's figures andFleetCarma,anadvocacy groupfor electric vehicles.

The province ishoping that number will increase to 14,000 in four years. There are currently 11 million cars and trucks on Ontario roads.

'Battery electric vehicles will not, in theforeseeablefuture, help any nation meet their transportation needs.'- DennisDesrosiers,automotive industry analyst

"There isn't a jurisdiction in the world that has met the quota that have been set for battery electric vehicles,"said DennisDesRosiers, an automotive industry analyst.

"The fact of the matter is, battery electric vehicles will not, in theforeseeablefuture, help any nation meet their transportation needs."

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But FleetCarma CEOMatt Stevenssays Ontario's goal is certainly achievable. In Norway, he said, 35 per cent of vehicles are electric or hybridplug-ins, according to figures from March 2016. That's seven times Ontario's intended target, he said.

"It's very feasible," he said ofOntario's target.

Power demand is manageable

As for the added strain on the hydro grid, thatreally isn't much of an issue, Stevens said. The Independent Electricity SystemOperator, which ensures there's enough power to meet the province's needs,analyzedtheimpact of an increase in electrical vehicles.

If everyone owns a Teslaand everyone plugs it in on the same street at the sametime, that will blow your local feeder.-Matt Stevens, CEO of FleetCarma

If five per cent of allvehiclesin Ontariowere electric and wereon the road today, it would only increase the province's energy demand by 0.9 per cent, Stevens said.And if everyvehicle was electric, the load on the grid would only spike by 17 per cent.

"The totalenergy,we'refine.Where it becomes a bit of a challenge is when are thosevehiclespulling the power," he said.

"So, if everyone owns a Teslaand everyone plugs it in on the same street at the sametime, that will blow your local feeder.It's not anoverallenergyissue. It's just a peak power management issue."

Businesses, as well, could face some major costs if too many power stations are installed.

"The challengeisonceyouput fiveor 10 in the officebuilding, you justdon't get charged for the kilowatt hours, you get charged for the peak power you draw over a month, and it's called the demandcharge," Stevens said."That demand charge can be many more times expensive than the kilowatt charge.

"Itbecomesreally problematic once you have too many stations, and then there can come a point if you don't have a smart chargingsystem deployed, the utility can say we're not wiringyou any more juice. You're capped."

$20M for charging stations

And there is still the issue of driving long distances, and the dearth of fast publiccharging stations for pure electric vehicles. Although most people charge their vehicles at home, and some at the workplace, that will only provide enough juice for relatively short trips.

Last year, the province announced it was pouring $20 million into public stations that charge vehicles quickly. Currently, there are only five in the province. The money would go to increasing the number to more than 200 by March 2017.(Tesla has 50 public charging stations for its own vehicles.)

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"Wedesperatelyneed fast charging stations, and that's what they're fundingright now," Stevens said.

ButJean-FranoisTremblay, director of global automotive and transportation forErnst&Young, said governments in the past have acted too hastily,built more than what was requiredand not studied vehicle use carefully enough.

"The key word here is predictability," he said. "With electricvehicles, there is even a higher level of predictability in terms of energy consumption versus the true need for it. And if you put in too many charging stations that don't take into account that predictability, you'rejust wasting money, and you're not sending the right messages."