2015 will be hottest year on record until 2016, WMO predicts

This year will be the hottest onrecord and 2016 could be hotter due to the El Nino weatherpattern, the World Meteorological Organization said onWednesday, warning inaction on climate change could seetemperatures rise by 6 degrees Celsius or more.

But decisions taken at a summit of world leaders in Parisstarting on Monday could keep global temperature rises within 2degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial times, atarget set down in 2010 to try to prevent dangerous climatechange.

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"Yes, it's still possible to keep to the 2 degree target butthe more we wait for action the more difficult it will be," WMO
director-general Michel Jarraud told a news conference.

"You have scenarios assuming very strong decisions, veryquick and sharp reduction of greenhouse gases, and you haveother scenarios with business as usual, where you end up withpredictions of additional warming of 5, 6 degrees, maybe evenmore. That will very much depend on the decisions (in Paris)."

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1 C milestone

Global average surface temperatures in 2015 were likely toreach what the agency called the "symbolic and significant
milestone" of 1C above the pre-industrial era.

"This is due to a combination of a strong El Nino andhuman-induced global warming," the WMO said in a statement.

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Jarraud said El Nino may be responsible for 16-20 per cent ofthe rise and longer-term averages showed temperatures wererising regardless of El Nino or its cooling counterpart La Nina.

El Nino, a naturally occuring weather pattern marked bywarming sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, causes extremes such as scorching weather, droughts and flooding around the world. Meteorologists expect El Nino to peak between Octoberand January and to be one of the strongest on record.

A preliminary estimate based on data from January to Octobershowed the global average surface temperature for 2015 wasaround 0.73 C above the 1961-1990 average of 14 C and around 1 Cabove the pre-industrial 1880-1899 period, the WMO said.

"This is all bad news for the planet," Jarraud said.

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The years 2011-2015 have been the hottest five-year periodon record, with temperatures about 0.57C (1.01 Fahrenheit) abovethe 1961-1990 reference period.

Global ocean temperatures were unprecedented during theperiod, and several land areas including the continental
United States, Australia, Europe, South America and Russia broke temperature records by large margins.

"The world's ten warmest years have all occurred since 1998,with eight of them being since 2005," the WMO said.

Next year may be even warmer levels of greenhouse gasesin the atmosphere have risen to a new record every year for thepast 30 years and El Nino is likely to continue into 2016.

"The year whose annual mean temperature is likely to be moststrongly influenced by the current El Nino is 2016 rather than2015," the WMO said.