Elon Musk reveals plan to get humans to Mars within 10 years

SpaceXCEOElonMusk updated the world on his ambitious plans to get humans to Mars within the next 10 years, something he said wouldinsure the human race against some kind of doomsday event, which he said is likely inevitable at some point in the distant future.

It's afeat facing considerable technical and financialchallenges, heacknowledged.

• SpaceXcould send craft to Mars by 2018
• ElonMusk callsSpaceXblast a 'most difficult, complex failure'

He laid out his plan in akeynote speech called "Making Humans aMultiplanetarySpecies" at the International Astronautical Congress in Guadalajara, Mexico.

"If things go super well," he said, he would senda craft with 100 people aboard to Mars, and it could take as little as 80 days to get there.

But even though he said Mars is the best and closest option for habitation,any planwill be incredibly expensive. He said it will likely need the support of private and public funding.

Musk said hewill continue with his alreadyannounced plans to send anuncrewedDragon craft to Mars in about two years, with the plan of sending another one two years after that. He said hewants to make these trips "fairly routine"in order to encourage potentialfunders.

"Right now, we're just trying to make as much progress as we can with the resources we have available to keep moving forward,"he said. "And if we show that this is possible, that this dream is realnot just a dream but something that can be made real I think the support will snowball over time."

Costs and challenges

Musk said there were four main challenges:

• Rocket reusability.
• Refuellingin orbit.
• The ability to produce rocketpropellant on Mars.
• Choosing the right kindof propellant.

"Whatever system is designed, it has to have those fourfeatures addressed," said Musk.

He saidfiguring out all these factors will significantly reduce costs. He said he hopes to eventuallylower the cost to something like $200,000 US per person, so that anyonewho wants to go to Mars could conceivably do so, either through saving their own money or through funding opportunities.

Musk said it would take 40 to 100 years to achieve a self-sustaining civilization there.

His company also released an animationcalled "SpaceXInterplanetary Transport System"that hassome technical details about the plans(and a lot of dramatic music).

Musk said the animation is based onSpaceXrocket models, so it's very similar to what the company wants to build.

If people do make it to Mars, they will have a challenging environment to contend with.

The planet is cold, dryand windy, with powerful UV rays.

"It's a very harsh environment, so anyone who goestherewill have to take measures to protect themselves from these environmental realities," saidRichardLveill, adjunct professor in the department ofEarth and planetary sciences atMcGillUniversity.

While a civilization on Mars is perhaps decades away, Musk has madesignificant progress.

Earlier this year, Musk announced plans to send an unmanned spacecraft, called the Red Dragon, to Mars by 2018, in conjunction with NASA.

The Dragon craft has been tested in space before in 2012, it became thefirst commercial spacecraft to carry cargo to and from the International Space Station.

"He's really changed the game in many ways for developing private capabilities for space travel," saidLveill. "It's really a game-changer in terms of where we are going in terms of space and future destinations and in terms of humanity."

Musk is 'coming on strong'

RobertZubrin, a Colorado-basedaerospace engineer,president of the Mars Society and author of the bookThe Case for Mars,is an unabashed supporter for colonizingMars.

He saidSpaceXwill survive itsrecent rocket explosion, but it will take a lot of successful launches in a row to convince anyone to put evencargo let alone people on one of Musk's vehicles.

"This is a fragile thing," saidZubrin. "But he is coming on strong and he is showing that he's able to develop things in one-third of the time and one-tenth of the cost that the mainline aerospace industry can."

Zubrinsaid going to Mars has been a difficult sell, politically.

"It's expensive and also a program would happen after[the next U.S. president's] term of office it's more than eight years out."

But he said Musk has been consistently building up his arsenal of hardware that would be needed to send humans to the Red Planet.

"Musk is going to make money sending humans to Mars by being the guy who has the stuff needed to do it when the time comes," saidZubrin.

High pressure

Despite past successes, there's a lot of pressure on Musk. His companies Tesla Motors andSpaceXhave both hadhighlypublicized problems recently.

This summer, adriver was killedwhile using theAutopilotfunction of a Tesla vehicle.

On Sept. 1, after several successful landings, one ofSpaceX'srockets explodedduring what was meant to be a routine pre-launch test. A Falcon rocket and the satellite it was carrying were destroyed. A rocket like the Falcon would be needed to boost a Dragon into space.

The company has still not confirmedwhat caused the explosion, but it announced last week thata breached helium system was the source.

Musk called the Sept. 1 failure themost difficult and complexone in the company's 14-year history.