Google data shines light on whether coronavirus lockdowns worldwide are working

Google has published charts showing how thecoronavirus has brought hard-hit Italy to a standstill, led toruns on grocery stores around the world and prompted a starkdrop in going out between Mardi Gras and St. Patrick's Day.

The analysis of location data from billions of Google users'phones is the largest public data set available to help healthauthorities assess if people are abiding with shelter-in-placeand similar orders issued across the world to rein in the virus.

The company released reports for 131 countries including Canada with chartsthat compare traffic from Feb. 16 to March 29 to retail andrecreational venues, train and bus stations, grocery stores andworkplaces with a five-week period earlier this year.

Google said it published the reports to avoid any confusionabout what it was providing to authorities, given the globaldebate that has emerged about balancing privacy-invasivelocation tracking with the need to prevent further outbreaks.

The data often correlated with the severity of outbreaks andthe harshness and breadth of orders imposed by governments.

Italy, Spain see major drops

Italy and Spain, two of the hardest-hit countries, both sawvisits to retail and recreation locations such as restaurantsand movie theatres plunge 94 per cent. The United Kingdom, France andPhilippines had declines of more than 80 per centwhile India, whichwent into a sudden 21-day lockdown on March 25, was also notableat 77 per cent.

Canada has seen drops that are less steep, though still significant. Retail and recreation Canada-wide has gone down by 59 per cent, while Quebec the hardest-hit province, with more than 5,500 cases has seen the greatestreduction, at70 per cent. In New Brunswick, the data shows an increasein visits to parks, while Nova Scotia has a reduction of only five per cent.

In the United States, where state responses have variedgreatly, and in Australia, where good weather initially promptedmany people to go the beach before social distancing measureswere ratcheted up, the drop in visits to retail and recreation sites were less steep, at under 50 per cent.

In contrast, in Japan and Sweden, where authorities have notimposed harsh restrictions, visits fell by roughly only a quarter. In South Korea,which has successfully contained a large outbreak throughaggressive testing and contact tracing, the decline was just19 per cent.

Challenges remain in keeping people apart

The data also underscore some challenges authorities havefaced in keeping people apart. Grocery store visits surged inSingapore, the U.K. and elsewhere as travelrestrictions were set to go into place. Visits to parks spikedin March in some San Francisco Bay Area counties under lockdownin California, forcing them to later put the sites off-limits.

The data also underscores how the mood of people around theworld has shifted. In New Orleans, during its annual Mardi Grascelebrations Feb.16-25, which has with hindsight been criticizedfor helping spread the virus, there were off-the-chart increasesin traffic to transit stations, parks and businesses.

But three weeks later in Dublin, the heart of St. Patrick'sholiday celebrations, traffic was down at retail andrecreational venues as the country ordered big events cancelled.

Within countries, there were wide gaps in behaviour byregion. California, which was the first in the U.S. with astatewide lockdown, cut visits to retail and recreationlocations by half. In New York state, the slide in such visitswas gradual as officials waited to impose strict curbs, but theyeventually fell 62 per cent. By contrast, Arkansas, one of the fewstates without a sweeping lockdown, had the smallest decline, at29 per cent.

The coronavirus has infected more than one million peopleglobally, and COVID-19, the respiratory illness it causes, haskilled 53,000, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.

There were no reports for China and Iran, where Googleservices are blocked.

Balancing privacy

Data in Google's reports come from users who enabledGoogle's "Location History" feature on their devices. Thecompany said it adopted technical measures to ensure that noindividual could be identified through the new reports.

"These reports have been developed to be helpful whileadhering to our stringent privacy protocols and policies," Dr.Karen DeSalvo, chief health officer for Google Health and JenFitzpatrick, senior vice president for Google Geo, wrote in ablog post.

China, Singapore, South Korea and other countries have askedresidents to use apps and other technology to track theircompliance with quarantines, but privacy activists argue suchmeasures can compromise individual liberties.

Infectious disease specialists have said analyzing travelacross groups by age, income and other demographics could helpshape public service announcements.

Google, which infers demographics from users' internet useas well as some data given when signing up to Google services,said it was not reporting demographic information. The companysaid, though, it was open to including additional informationand countries in follow-up reports.

Google said consultations with officials in the U.S. and theWorld Health Organization helped inform the data shared.

The company declined to comment on whether it has receivedany legal requests to share more detailed data to help withefforts to tackle the pandemic.

Facebook, which like Google has billions ofusers, has shared location data with non-governmentalresearchers that are producing similar reports for authoritiesin several countries. But the social media giant has notpublished any findings.