5 swing states that could decide the Obama-Romney race

The 2012 U.S. presidential election campaign finally comes down to election day and a handful of battleground states that will decide whether Barack Obama gets another four years in office or Mitt Romney replaces him.

Nervous about the dead-even race in his home state of Wisconsin, Obama supporter Jim Apple drove his mother Nancy down to one of the presidents campaign phone-bank offices in Racine so she could volunteer on the day before the vote.

Looking around the office, Apple, 39, a grocery-store worker and "full-blown" Democrat who finds watching election results coming in "nerve-racking," askedif he could also help out.

"It's empowering because we could be the key state," Apple told CBCNews.ca. "We have the opportunity to make the choice, although I hope it won't be that close."

Wisconsin, also home to Romneys running mate Paul Ryan, is considered a toss-up between Obama and the Republican challenger, who both embarked on break-neck tours of the swing states in the campaigns final days and spent untold millions in advertising targeting them.

The latest polls suggest national support for the two candidates is deadlocked around 49 per cent for each candidate. But the winner is decided not by the popular vote but by the states through the electoral college, which assigns states their number of electoral votes based on the number of members intheir congressional delegation.

The president starts off the night with more so-called decided or safe statesthe states where he is almost certain to winthan Romney, and many more paths to victory on the electoral college map.

Along with Wisconsin, swing states Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada have the electoral votes ina number of scenariosto push one candidateabove theotherin the all-out race to 270, the number needed to be elected president.

In these states, it boils down to turnout, with both sides touting their advantages, either in organization on the ground or enthusiasm among their supporters.

Ohio

Conventional political wisdomin this year's racehas designated Ohio the belle of the ball, and no Republican has ever been elected president without winning the state. If Obama wins Ohios 18 electoral college votes, hes within striking distance of 270, while Romney's path becomes much harder should he lose the state.

A member of the "rust belt" of hard-hit blue-collar manufacturing states, Ohio also embodies much of the nations economic struggles and fears over the past four years. But its economy, with heavy ties to the auto industry, also has also shown signs of improving, and Ohios unemployment rate of seven per cent is below the current national average.

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The closely contested race has meant no peace for Ohioans on the airwaves.

"Ive never seen so manycampaign commercials in my life," said Herb Asher, a professor emeritus of political science at Ohio State University, whose teaching and studies focus on campaigns, elections and public opinion polling.

And though election night means the ads will finallystop, Asher warned it'spossible the nation and the world could have to wait beyond election night for Ohios final resultperhaps days or even weeksas the state completes the time-consuming process of counting and validating tens ofthousands ofprovisional and absentee ballots.

Despite all thats at stake in Ohio and the potential for a late result, Asher says he doesnt anticipate a long and drawn-out legal battle similar to the Bush-Gore showdown in Floridain the 2000 election.

"We have a good electoral system here," he said. "Were not like in Florida in 2000, when they were just making it up as they went along."

Wisconsin

Wisconsin is still reeling from last year's unsuccessful attempt to recall Republican governor, Scott Walker, over his moves to curb state spending, including eliminating union rights for most public workers.

Althoughthe Republicans won that battle, both sides now say they have emerged from the bitter struggle holdingtheadvantage in the event of a few electoral college scenarios thatput Wisconsin as the potential deciding state.

"The thing that wins elections in Wisconsin is voter intensity and enthusiasm," Wisconsin Romney campaign spokesman Ben Sparks told CBCNews.ca on Monday. "We're feeling pretty good right now."

Thanks to the recall attempt, Sparks said,Romney can rely on "the largest, most comprehensive grassroots organization that Republicans have ever had in Wisconsin."

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But Gil Parr, another lifelong Democrat volunteering at the Obama campaign's Racine office, said Walker's anti-union moves have galvanizedan oppositionwhose memberswill head to the polls fired up to support Obama.

"If I wanted anybody to decide this vote, I'd want Wisconsin," Parr said. "It's a union-type state, it's a middle-class state and I'm sure they're going to go Democratic."

Florida and Virginia

The tight polls and testyelection climate in Florida have observers againspeculating about a repeat of the 2000 debacle of determining the state's current 29 electoral votes.

Florida Democrats have already been to court before election dayto force the Republican-led state government to extend early voting, after complaints over the weekend about long lines making it impossible for some people to vote. The early legal flurry was settledMonday eveningwith a compromise between the party and the counties.

Romney is slightly ahead of Obama in polls in Florida,which the president won inhis blowout 2008 win over Republican challenger John McCain. In Virginia, Obamahas a small leadin pollsand is hoping for a repeat of four years ago, where he won by a 53-46 per cent margin.

But if Romney emerges early on tonightas theclear winner in Virginia,it could mean Ohio and Florida arenext. After that, he needs one more swing state and he'll be the nextpresident.

New Hampshire

The little sliver on the mapclose to Canada that isNew Hampshire could end upsettling it all under a tie-breaker scenario in an exceptionally close race.

• What is the U.S. Electoral College?

IfObama loses Ohio but hangs onto Wisconsin and western swing states Colorado and Nevadain part from his massive support advantage among Hispanic votersin those states, whileRomneyaddsFlorida and Virginia to his Ohio win, then New Hampshire's four electoral votes would proved decisive.

Obama beatMcCain in the Granite State by10 percentage pointsin 2008, but New Hampshirites have a fierceindependent streak and would relish the chance to be the deciders. How wild would that be?