Brazil President Dilma Rousseff impeachment crisis: What happens next?

With Brazil's lower house of Congress voting late Sunday to impeach Dilma Rousseff, legislators have taken a major stepin the process to attempt toremove the president from office.Here's what to expect following this vote.

What happened on Sunday?

More than two-thirds of thelower house, called the Chamber of Deputies like the U.S.House of Representatives voted367-137 to accept the recommendationof a congressional committee that Rousseff be impeached. Ironically, about 60 per cent of the 594 members of Congress are themselves facing corruption and other charges, including the Speaker, Eduardo Cunha.

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What's the next step?

The vote was just the latest step, but a major step toward impeachment. Despite the vote, Rousseffremains the leader. Now the process moves to the Senate, whichwill vote on whether the upper chamber should put Rousseff on trial for impeachment. (Local news media report that 45 of the 81 senators have said they will vote to hold the impeachment trial.)

Itcould be about 40 days before that Senate vote is cast. But timing is very difficult to predict,saysJeffrey Lesser a professor ofBrazilianhistory atEmory University and currentlyresearch professor atUniversity of So Paulo,Rousseff has challenged every step of this process. She had asked the country's Supreme Federal Tribunal, Brazil's highest court, to suspend the proceedings, but lost that decision. But she could go to the court again,on the grounds that the accusations are faulty.

What happens after the Senate vote?

If the 81-member Senate, which only needs a majority,votes to put Rousseff on trial, she will be temporarily suspended and her duties will be assumedby Vice President Michel Temer. The Senate has 180 days toput Rousseffon trial, meaning she would be suspended while the trial is taking place. After the trial, the Senate will then either vote guilty ornot guilty. If two-thirds of the Senate vote to convict her, she will be removed from office.

What happens if she's removed from office?

The vice president would become the president. However, there are at least two motions to impeach Temer. Hehas been implicated in thecorruption scandal centred on the state-run Petrobras oil companyand also signed off on the some of the same allegedly illegalfiscal manoeuvres Rousseff used. (Cunha, the speaker, is next in line if Temer was to be impeached.)

The vice president, is not from the same party asRousseff he had beenpart ofa coalitiongovernment, meaning Temer and his Brazilian Democratic Movement Party, the largest party in Brazil (butwithless than one-seventh of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies), have a high stake in Rousseffbeing impeached because they become the ruling party, Lesser said.

But Temer's partyabandoned Rousseff's governing coalition last month. And a recording was releasedof him rehearsing a post- Rousseffimpeachment speech to the nation.

"He is smilingand looking forward to taking over and, according to the president,he has been one of the underhanded actors in this story," Lesser said.

Why the vote to impeach?

Rouseff has not been accused of corruption or any kind of thievery. The impeachment proceedings against Rousseff are based on accusations she used illegal accounting tricks to shore up flagging public support through spending.

"She'sbeing accused of using a set of accounting practicesthat have been used for a long time in Brazil to balance the books in a way that conforms to Brazilian legislation of how the books have to be balanced," Lesser said.

Is the attempted impeachment based only onthesealleged accounting irregularities?

No, says Lesser. There are some criticswho believe that by using these accounting practices, Rousseffhas engaged incriminal behaviour because, in their view,these practices are technically illegal.

However, there are alsomany people who want her to be impeached because they believeshe's incompetent and has mismanaged the economy, Lesser said.

As well,there are those whobelieve that she allowed corruption to take place even though there's no evidence that she was personally and privately gaining from that corruption.

"All of these groups that want to get rid of her don't necessarily agree on precisely why they want her to be gone. They just want her to be gone," he said.

What is the likelihood that the president will be impeached?

"A good chance," says Lesser.

Then what?

If Rousseff is booted out, Temerbecomes thepermanentpresident and finishes outRousseff's term to 2018. But there are some discussions among members of Rousseff'sWorker's Party that, in the wake of an impeachment,new elections be held since Temerhas not won an election to be president. Not surprisingly, Temeropposes this move.

Will this political crisis have any effect on the Olympics?

Unlikely, says Lesser. The Summer Olympic Games are set to run from Aug. 5 to 21 this year in Rio de Janeiro. That means if the Senate votes for an impeachment trial, Rousseff could either be suspended during the Games or have been booted out of office.

Lesser says that it's inTemer's best intereststo make the Olympics a success. However, it's unclear whetherthe nationwidepolitical protests will still be going strongduring the Games and what effect they could have.