Brexit could unravel the prime minister, the party and the EU: Nahlah Ayed

You just know a British prime minister is in a tight spot when he calls on James Bond forhelp.

Tweeting a picture of Daniel Craig, the actor who plays 007, wearing a "Remain" T-shirtmight have seemed like a good idea on the eve of a referendum on the European Union that's too close to call.

But it also seemed to hint at David Cameron's quiet panic going into a contest that hasn'tgone as smoothly as he might have expected.

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Britain at the moment, like its prime minister, looks uncharacteristically insecure.

Some of the fault lines are also new and worrisome.

"It's very unusual for us to have a national referendum in this country," says JoeTwyman, head of political and social research at the pollster YouGov.

"We've seen families divided in a way that they probably wouldn't be if this were ageneral election.And so wherever we fall, whether we choose to leave or remain, the ramifications of thiscould last for years."

Away from the bombastic confidence on the campaign trail, many people on both sidesare far less certain of the consequences of the choice they make today,and are highlycritical of opponents who seem certain about how it's all going to shake out.

Still, while there is no precedent to go on, many believe it's reasonable to assume aBrexit vote would precipitate a great unravelling: of a prime minister, his ConservativePartyand in the longterm, possibly the EU itself.

It would take time, maybe years, for Britain to extricate itself from the union it boughtinto in the early 1970s; and leaving wouldlikely be made difficultto discourage others from followingsuit. But EU experts predict others would still likely begin heading for the exit if Britainwalks away from the union, eventually dissolving it into irrelevance.

Long before then, Cameron, the prime minister, would probably succumb to the side ofhis party that effectively strong-armed him into holding the vote in the first place.

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The open internecine warfare we've watched in recent weeks would also leave its markon the establishment party itself, bringing as much change to its front benches, as itwould to its nowcleaved rank and file.

Some question whether it even remains as a single party.

And with the ruling Conservatives as divided as the nation itself, the referendum may notbe the only vote the British cast this year.

The political fallout is also possible even if Britain opts to remain because of what's transpired even before the votes were cast.

"We've had for weeks now people just attacking, accusing [each other,]" says Twyman,"where a minister will be accused of lying by [their] junior minister."

How do you heal those rifts? You probably don't.

"If one thing's for certain," says Twyman, "politics has definitely changed in thiscountry. In many ways this will not be the end, it will only be the beginning."

Friends, families divided

The vote has also sharpened existing divisions among ordinary people and highlightednew ones: on the leave and remain sides respectively, it's old vs. young, universityvs. high school educated, the elite vs.the working class.

In a poll conducted last week, YouGov discovered that about a tenth of respondents saidthey believed the debate had caused discord among their group of friends. Some 26 percent said immediate family was split by a difference of opinion on choice.

The sharpened regional differences also raise disquieting scenarios. Would a vote forBrexit automatically mean another Scotland independence referendum?

"A vote to leave the European Union changes the terms that the Scottish independencereferendum came to a close on, so that's a real game-changer, I would think, forScotland," said Edinburgh resident Andrew MacDougall. "And so a repeat of theindependence referendum might actually have a completely different result this timearound."

Lingering resentments

The resentment over perceived or actual fearmongering, lies, or at best, speculationdeployed on both sides during the campaign is likely to linger.

Remain politicians are "scaremongering," said a pro-Brexit patron at London'sMetropolitan bar. "'We're going to lose all these jobs, and we're going to lose all thistrade' they've got no proof of that,"he says.

"Before we [were] in the EU we got along well, so why try and frighten people intosomething that possibly isn't going to happen?"

Not long into ourconversation, the man and a friend acknowledge that being older, theymay just be more susceptible to nostalgia. Perhaps immigration, a major issue for them,could just "slow down a little bit."

The uncertainty also seems to pervade both sides and many levels of the debate.

Tim Martin, founder of JDWetherspoon, which owns the Metropolitan, has just comeoff a tour of some 100 pubs his company owns to persuadepatrons to vote for Brexit.

Along with the pints, his pubs have been serving up a manifesto he wrote and evencoasters that lay out the case for leaving the EU's myriad rules behind.

But even he admits that when push comes to shove and despite his considerableeffort people still may opt for a remain vote out of fear of what the Daily Mirrordescribed on its front page as a "leap into the dark."

"It is deeply emotive, the issue of where the rules come from. Human beings don't like itif they feel that people they can't elect makerules which affect them," he said in aninterview.

But, "Fear might work when people get into the polling booth they might vote toremain. I hope they don't."

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