Is Ron DeSantis done? His U.S. presidential bid is sputtering before launch

Ron DeSantis entered this year aiming to be the heir to Donald Trump. He's likelier to wind up as the next Scott Walker, if things don't turn around soon.

In other words: a superstar conservative governor of a swing state whosepresidential aspirationscrashed and burned before his campaign ever got off the ground.

"DeSantis is taking a bruising," Fox News host Jesse Watterssaid recently.

"It is a daily pummeling that [Donald] Trump is laying on this guy. How many more weeks and months is this going to sustain itself?"

That was weeks ago. Things have only gotten worse on multiple fronts: the bad polling, the donors getting skittish, the high-profile endorsements flowing toward Trump.

All this is before DeSantis has evenannounced he's running. But he's spent well over a year building a national podium for a campaign, giving the faithful viewers of Fox News everything they could conceivably ask for, assiduously courting the base voters who turn out in Republican primaries.

Victories in Florida legislature, L'sonnational stage

He's on the verge of banning transgender carefor minors in Florida, even threatening to strip parents of their custody rights.

He's banned school instructionon gender identity and sexual orientation;with the original bill critics dubbed 'Don't Say Gay' and a new version that extends it to all grades.

He's got the strictest immigration proposal in the country: a planned bill that makes it a felony to help undocumented immigrants, potentially threatening their family members.

He's got a new abortion ban at six weeks of pregnancy. This is one year after he signed a 15-week abortion ban into law, and recentlyfired a pro-choice prosecutorwho refused to enforce it.

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Disney got into a battle with Florida's Republican Governor Ron DeSantis over a recently passed education bill that critics call the "Don't Say Gay" law. After Disney's CEO spoke out against it, state lawmakers revoked the theme park's special tax status that it has held for more than half a century. Today on Front Burner, New York Times reporter Brooks Barnes explains how this became the latest flash point in America's ongoing culture wars.

He's expanded gun rights, including permitless carry.

There are alsobook bans in school libraries and he's curtailed teaching about racial injustice in schoolsunder the so-called Stop Woke Act.

He'sfeudedwith Disney overwokeness, and with the Special Olympics over a vaccine mandate.

And what does he have to show for this? He's down about25points to Donald Trump in national primary polling and that gap is growing, not shrinking.

It requires increasingly strenuous squinting from the pro-DeSantis commentariat to see good news in any of these recent surveys.

Like the National Review declaring Trump's recent surge has slowed down.Or the conservative Washington Post columnist presenting it as good news for DeSantis that a survey shows him losing by only 20 points in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup in New Hampshire where it's just him and Trump, versus 33 points if there are other candidates.

Florida Democrats can only watch in astonishment as their rival notches victory after victory in the state legislature, while taking L's on the national stage.

They see these controversial bills as being passed with one main audience: the national Republican primary voter.

The gun and abortion ideasin particular were not policies Floridians asked for, according tostate lawmaker Anna Eskamani.

"Not popular," she said of those policies in an interview with CBC News. "Almost every single policy we face has been co-opted by DeSantis's own ambitions."

WATCH | Florida expands 'Don't Say Gay' ban:

Florida expands controversial Dont say gay ban

1 year ago

Duration 2:00

The Board of Education has voted to ban instruction on sexual orientation and gender identity in all ages, expanding the statute some call the Dont say gay law. The move comes as the states Republican Governor Ron DeSantis is believed to be gearing up for a presidential run.

Rough ride in Washington

Yet those ambitions have suffered setbacks in just the last few days.

DeSantis, a former federal congressman,was back in his old stomping grounds in the country's capital, seeking to pick up endorsements.

It should have been friendly terrain for the Florida governor, a political crowd in Washington, D.C., where many Republicans long to see Trump disappear.

There were endorsements all right for Trump.

One Texas lawmaker emerged from a meeting with DeSantis and announced he would be backing Trump.

Another Republican lawmaker from DeSantis's own state, Greg Steube, endorsed Trump. One report said Steube couldn't get face time with the governor, but got a phone call from Trump when he fell off a ladder and wound up in hospital.

A chronicle of DeSantis's recent strugglesin The Washington Postcharacterized him as a cold fish, quoting one of his own backers saying: "He doesn't like talking to people, and it's showing."

Followthe moneyand endorsements

Yet another Trump endorsement came recently fromByron Donalds, the very lawmakerwho spoke at DeSantis's election-night rally last year.

The Post said the former president's team had been courting Donalds, and that they had even discussed a possible cabinet position.

The bottom line: Trump is crushing the governor when it comes to endorsements, racking up approximately 20 times more, according to a methodology used by the website fivethirtyeight.com.

There are also cold feet in another prized DeSantis constituency: big-money donors. Rolling Stone reports that wealthy backers are ripping him.

One billionaire backer, Thomas Peterffy, told the Financial Timeshe'd paused donations, citing the governor's abortion moves and the book bans.

"I have put myself on hold," he told the paper. "Myself, and a bunch of friends, are holding our powder dry."

The billionaire founder of an electronic brokerage-firm stated the obvious: DeSantis's chances of winning now seem lower than they were.

The governor's seeming refusal to take aswing at Trump might not be helping.

Meanwhile, Trump pummels him daily, ridiculing him in several ads.Trump's campaign team also castigated DeSantis for touring the country while his state, Florida, was dealing with a historic flood.

Can he turn it around?

So,can DeSantis turn it around?The chances are slim, if history is any guide.

Analysis of polling data going back to 1972 finds that an early primary polling lead is actually a pretty good predictor of who will eventually win the party nomination.

That analysis by fivethirtyeight.com found that candidates polling over 35 per cent a year before the primaries wound up winning more than three-quarters of the time.

One anti-Trump Republican, Ross Douthat, argues DeSantis has to run; that his odds of winning a nomination might never be better.

A pollster says DeSantis's political condition isn't fatal.

What he still has going for him is he remains far ahead of any other alternative candidate to Trump, according toCarl Bialik, U.S. politics editor for the YouGov firm.

"I think he's a very clear No. 2 right now," Bialik said, notingit's hard to know how unforeseen news events could affect the race. After all, DeSantis's rival faces multiple criminal investigations.

Then again,just look at what happened the first time Trump was charged with a crime:hislead over DeSantis only grew.