Clinton and Trump's big policy dreams could get dashed by Congress

In her Democratic National Convention speech,Hillary Clinton suggested herrecord ofworking "across the aisle" to pass laws would enable her, as president,to break the gridlock inCongress andpush through her policy agenda.

Whether she really believes that or not, at best it seems to be wishful thinking.

"Noneof her major goals will be accomplished, in all likelihood," said Geoffrey Skelley, a political analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

"The country is extremely polarized and Republicans in Congress are going to have zero interest in giving her any kind of win."

IfDonald Trump wins in November, Republicans may end up controlling both the executive and legislative branches of government. Yet he, too, would likelyface hurdles to implementing key elements of his platform, thoughhe would certainly have an advantage.

Currently, the Republicans hold both houses of the U.S.Congress and it's considered unlikely that the House of Representatives will switch hands in next fall's election, regardless of who wins the presidency. This means that, at best, Clinton can hope for control of the Senate to fall to the Democrats, but she would still be hamstrung by the Republican-controlledHouse.

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Clinton has laid out an ambitious domestic agenda, plans that include passing what would be, according to her, the biggest investment in jobs since the Second World War. She has also pledged to make college tuition-free for the middle class, raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans, raise the federal minimum wage and expand affordable health care.

While there could be room for compromise on smaller issues,such asbipartisansupport forcriminaljustice reform and some tax policy, it would be a struggle for her to pass her big-ticket items through Congress.

"She won't be able to get most of that laundry list done, and she's savvy enough to know that," said JulianZelizer, professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University."Civility, reaching across the aisle, none of that really works. House Republicansare dug in on a lot of domestic issuesand that won't have any bigeffect."

Yet if the Democrats can significantlycut into the Republicans' House majority, some of the more moderate GOP members, who do not follow in lockstep with the party, might be persuaded to throw their support behindwatered-downversions of one of Clinton's proposals.

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"It's not inconceivablethat ifthe numbers change,thattherecould be some deal-making," said Matthew Baum,aprofessor of public policy at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government."Those opportunitiesmay be few and far between.But they may be more than zero."

And Clinton would still haveexecutive powers, something U.S. President BarackObama has wielded, albeitcontroversially, to bypass Congress.

Conservatives' biggest fear, however, is the ability Clinton would haveto fill vacancies on the U.S.Supreme Court, although Republicans would surely put up a fightand attempt to filibusterher nominees.

Building a wall

On the other hand, aTrump winthat maintained the status quo in Congress could mean the passage of some Republican-led policy initiatives. But even if the Republicansretain the Senate, it's unlikely they would have the 60-vote majority needed to shield their legislation fromfilibuster, meaning that Trump, too, would face hurdles in getting his agenda passed.

Trump has not been as specific onpolicy initiativesas Clinton. OnMonday, he spoke about his economic plan, including his proposal tocut personal and corporate taxesand increaseinfrastructure spending. (His economic package also includes askingTransCanada to renew its permit application for the Keystone XL pipeline.)

He has been very vocal about his desire toconstructawall along the U.S.-Mexicoborder to keep out illegalimmigrants. And he has also suggested a temporary ban on Muslims coming into the U.S, but has since appeared tosoftenhis stance.

The former reality TV hosthas also made waves by saying he wouldn't necessarily honour U.S. obligations to come to the defence of NATO allies, and he has vowed to impose tariffs on Chineseimportsand on goods from U.S. companies that have set up plants in Mexico.

Trump would likely receiveRepublicancongressional support for his plans to cut taxes, but some of his other initiatives, particularly those consideredanti-trade, would likely run into strong opposition from the GOP.

The Republicans"won't help him do things that go against their agenda," Zelizer said.

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Even his plan to build a wall assuming that Mexico, despite Trump'sassurances, would not pay for it may be a difficult sell for Republicans, wary of the multi-billion-dollar cost of such a structure.

AlthoughRepublicans would opposehis tepid viewof NATO,as president, he would have the power to weaken the U.S.'s commitment to its militaryalliances.

"He can unilaterally significantly reduce the extent to which the United States lives up to them," Baum said. "He could make a great deal of mischief in that respect."

Zelizer said some Republicans will decideit's better to forge deals with Trump to push forward some kind of agenda because it will be good for the party.

Yet the tensions are so significant between him andmany Republicans, and it's still unclear what his agenda would be, Zelizer said.

"You can imagine him doing things that don't sit well with other Republicans.You could imagine him all of a sudden cutting deals with Democrats. SoI think it's kind of an unknown."