Ethiopia's Tigray conflict explained: How a year of bloodshed has sparked fears of a wider civil war

The conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region has spread through the north of the country at the cost of thousands of lives amid widespread reports of atrocities committed by all factions.

Observers say the fightingthreatens to destabilize theHorn of Africa regionand could worsen an ongoing famine in Tigray, whilethe UnitedNations warned that the risk of Ethiopia spiralling into awidening civil war is "only too real."

More than twomillion people in Tigrayhavefled their homes.

How did the conflictstart?

Thefighting began in November 2020, when forces loyal tothe Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF)seized militarybases in Tigray. It came just three months after the central governmentpostponed a scheduled general election, citingthe COVID-19 pandemic.

When the Tigrayregion held its own regional elections in September 2020, the central government declared the voteunconstitutional.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed responded to the TPLF's attacks with a military counter-offensivethat has spiralled beyond Tigray,asmilitiasand separatist groups from other regionstook up arms against the central government.

The Ethiopian government declared a unilateral ceasefire in June, and its forcesretreated from the region, but the fighting has intensified in recent weeks, as Tigrayan forces retook key towns and advance closer to the capital, Addis Ababa.

Who's fighting whom?

The TPLFrules the mountainous Tigray region, which hasa population of more than five million people, and was the dominant force in Ethiopian politicsfor decades. Thedominance of the paramilitary group effectively ceased when Abiywas elected to office in 2018 in a popular uprising followinghispledge toopenup what has long been one of the most restrictive political systems in Africa.

Abiy, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his efforts in securing peace between Ethiopia andneighbouring Eritrea, has accusedthe TPLF of treason and terrorism.

Since coming to office, Abiy has failed to tamp down ethnic violence within his own country, and anyimage of him as a peacemaker appears irrevocably stained by the atrocities committedby Ethiopian forces and their Eritrean allies in Tigray.

Last week, a joint investigation by the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission and the UN Human Rights Office concludedthat there are "reasonable grounds to believe that all parties to the conflict in Tigray have, to varying degrees, committed violations of international human rights, humanitarian and refugee law, some of which may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity."

WATCH |Ethiopian-Canadian journalist on the chances of a ceasefire:

Canada calls on all warring parties in Ethiopia to immediately end hostilities

3 years ago

Duration 6:19

Samuel Getachew, an Ethiopian-Canadian journalist, joined Power & Politics Monday from Addis Ababa to discuss the year-long Ethiopian civil war that has seen thousands killed and millions displaced, with widespread reports of human rights atrocities.

The acts the investigation uncovered included unlawful killings and extra-judicial executions, torture, sexual and gender-based violence, violations against refugees and forced displacement of civilians.

In June, the UN's top humanitarian official, Mark Lowcock, accused Eritrean forces of "trying to deal with the Tigrayan population by starving them."

The conflict is "defined overall by a legacy of sexual violation that has happened to many women and girls," Ethiopian-Canadian journalist Samuel Getachew toldCBC Newson Monday in an interview from Addis Ababa.

What are Canadaand the world community doing?

The threat to the capital led Ethiopia's government to declare a state of emergency last week, andCanada, the United States and other countries urged citizens to leave immediately.

Canada is alsowithdrawing the familiesof its embassy staff and non-essential personnel from Ethiopia as fightingintensifies.

Global Affairs Canada issued a statement on Sunday calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities and "an end to indiscriminate attacks on civilians and humanitarian personnel in northern Ethiopia."

U.S. and African Union envoys have been holding urgent talks in Ethiopia in search of a ceasefire. ButGetachewsaid there doesn't appear to be any interest on the part ofthe Ethiopian government and the TPLF to sit down and negotiate a ceasefire.

"The Ethiopian side is saying it's [acting] for the foundation of the country, and the TPLF is saying they're trying to prevent genocide,"Getachewsaid.

"With these kinds of words and accusations going back and forth, it's really difficult to see an end in sight, and more people will be affected as a result."

Advocates from the Tigrayan community in Canada have also called on Ottawato open its embassy in Addis Ababa to their relatives who are seeking protection duringthe conflict.