Modi's party leads in India election but could face stronger opposition than expected

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's coalition led in a majority of seats Tuesday in India's general election, according to early figures, but faced a stronger challenge from the opposition than expected after it pushed back against the leader's mixed economic record and polarizing politics.

Modi's Hindu nationalist party appeared unlikely to secure a majority on its own, according to an ongoing count, despite pre-election hopes of a landslide victory. However,he was still expected to be elected to a third five-year term in the world's largest democratic exercise, involving some 640 million votes cast over six weeks.

The 73-year-old leader looking to be just the second Indian leader to secure power for a third term after Jawaharlal Nehru, the country's first prime minister has never been in a position where he has needed to rely on coalition partners to govern.

"People have placed their faith in NDA, for a third consecutive time! This is a historical feat in India's history," Modisaid Tuesday in a post on social media platform X, referring to the National Democratic Alliance that hisBharatiya Janata Party(BJP) leads.

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After a historic six-week election, vote counting has begun in India, with many expecting a major win for Narendra Modi, giving him a third consecutive term as the country's prime minister.

Nearly 970 million people more than 10 per cent of the world's population were eligible to vote and turnout averaged 66 per cent, according to official data.

A total of 272 seats are needed for a majority. In 2019, the BJPwon 303 seats, up from 282 in 2014 when Modi first came to power.

Some 12 hours into counting, partial tallies reported by India's Election Commission showed BJPwas ahead in 114 constituencies and had won 126 of 543 parliamentary seats. The main opposition Congress party, led by Nehru's great-grandson Rahul Gandhi, led in 45 constituencies and had won 54.

NDA coalition members led in led in 147 constituencies and won 139, according to the partial count. The Congress party is part of the INDIA alliance, which led in 131 constituencies and had won 99.

The election commission does not release data on the percentage of votes tallied, and figures could change over time.

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'Moral loss' for Modi, opposition says

"[The] Congress party and other opposition parties have showed tremendous resilience. To have a stronger opposition augers very well for India's democracy that has taken a hit during Modi's 10-year rule," said political analyst Rasheed Kidwai.

Exit polling from the weekend had projected the NDA to win more than 350 seats. Indian markets closed sharply down Tuesday, with benchmark stock indices the NIFTY 50 and the BSE Sensex both down by more than fiveper cent.

In his 10 years in power, Modi has transformed India's political landscape, bringing Hindu nationalism, once a fringe ideology in India, into the mainstream while leaving the country deeply divided. His supporters see him as a self-made, strong leader who has improved India's standing in the world. His critics and opponents say his Hindu-first politics have bred intolerance andthe economy, the world's fifth-largest and one of the fastest-growing, has become more unequal.

At a news conference, the Congress party president Mallikarjun Kharge said the alliance's strong showing was a "win for democracy" and a "moral and political loss" for Modi.

'Not just the prime campaigner'

Modi's popularity has outstripped that of his party's, and has turned a parliamentary election into one that increasingly resembles a presidential-style campaign. The result is that the BJP relies more and more on Modi's enduring brand to stay in power, with local politicians receding into the background even in state elections.

"Modi was not just the prime campaigner, but the sole campaigner of this election," said Yamini Aiyar, a public policy scholar.

The country's democracy, Modi's critics say, is faltering under his government, which has increasingly wielded strong-arm tactics to subdue political opponents, squeeze independent media and quash dissent. The government has rejected such accusations and says democracy is flourishing.

Economic discontent has simmered under Modi. While stock markets reach record-highs and millionaires multiply, youth unemployment has soared, with only a small portion of Indians benefiting from the boom.

Gandhi said the totals so far were a message from the people.

"The poorest of this country have defended the constitution of India," he said.

Modi said in a speech at party headquarters in New Delhi that in a third term he would advance India's defence capabilities, boost jobs for youth, raise exports and help farmers, among other priorities.

"This country will see a new chapter of big decisions. This is Modi's guarantee," he said, speaking in the third person.

The campaign turned increasingly shrill, as Modi ramped up polarizing rhetoric that targeted Muslims, who make up 14 per cent of the population, a tactic seen to energize his core Hindu majority voters. The opposition INDIA alliance has attacked Modi over his Hindu nationalist politics, and campaigned on issues of joblessness, inflation and inequality.

Extreme heat struck India as voters went to the polls, with temperatures higher than 45 C in some parts of the country. Temperatures were somewhat lower on Tuesday for the counting, but election officials and political parties still took precautions, hauling in large quantities of water and installing outdoor air coolers for people waiting for results outside the buildings where votes were being tallied and party headquarters.