Why ISIS-K poses a significant security threat in Afghanistan as civilians, troops attempt to flee

AsAfghans and others seek to escape Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, U.S. officials haveexpressed significant security concernsand the potential for an attack by ISIS-K.

"Every day we're on the ground is another day that we know ISIS-K is seeking to target the airport [in Kabul] and attack both us and allied forces and innocent civilians," U.S. President Joe Biden said this week.

CBC Explains looks at ISIS-K, a militantAfghan-based group known for staging suicide attacks on civilians, itsrelationship to the Taliban and any potential threat it poses.

When did ISIS-Kbegin operations in Afghanistan?

The group goesby a few names ISIS-K,IS-K,ISKP, which stands forIslamic State KhorasanorIslamic State Khorasan Province.

It haspresumably been in Afghanistan since at least November 2014, when jihadists in Afghanistan and Pakistan pledged allegiance to the core ISIS group, saidRiza Kumar, a research analyst atthe Counter Extremism Project, a New York-based organizationthatmaintains an extensive research database on extremist groups. ISIS-K was officially accepted by the core ISIS group in January 2015.

ISIS-K took its name from ahistorical region that covered much of modern-day Afghanistan and parts of Central Asia. It appeared in late 2014 in the eastern province of Nangarhar, where it retains a stronghold, and it also has a presence in Kunar province, the Afghan capital Kabul and northern Afghanistan.

It was formedby the disgruntled commanders ofthe Pakistani Taliban, or Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and joined by a few lower-ranked Afghan Taliban commanders and Afghan jihadist ideologues, saidAbdul Sayed, an independent researcher on jihadism and the politics and security of the Afghanistan-Pakistan region.

What's ISIS-K's connection to the central leadership?

ISIS-K is an affiliate ofISIS-Core, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, whichfinancially supports ISIS-K. While ISIS has expanded all over the worldinto such places asLibya, Egypt and Southeast Asia,Afghanistan has been one of the more successful franchise groups, saysColin Clarke, a senior research fellow at the Soufan Center in New York. It provides research andanalysis on global security challenges, with a particular focus on counterterrorism.

Still, while ISIS-Kessentially follows orders from the core group, the "time lag" means there's almost anational sense of autonomy, especially with tactical decisions,Clarke said.

"They're not running all these things up the flagpole," he said.

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Will the Taliban allow terror groups to grow in Afghanistan?

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What's the goal of ISIS-K?

Broadly speaking, ISIS-Kseekto establish a caliphate beginning in South and Central Asia, governed by Shariah law, which will expand as Muslims from across the region and world join, according to the website for the Center for Strategic andInternational Studies, a think-tank in Washington, D.C.

However, Clarke says he believes, ideally, ISIS-Kwants to carve outsome territory where itcan begin thinking about re-establishing a caliphate.

"And that's only going to be a small patch.It doesn't have to be as ambitious as what happened in Iraq and Syria," he said.

How big is itsmembership?

The number of fighters has fluctuatedfrom as little as 600 to as many as 5,000 troops, but It is currently estimated that there are at least 2,000 fighters affiliated with ISIS-K, said Kumarof the Counter Extremism Project.

Clarke, however, said he believes those numbers will soon increase.

"I think now with the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, you're going to start seeing foreign fighters flocking to the country.You could have Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, you know, Central Asians joining the mix, and it's going to make ISIS more dangerous."

How active has ISIS-Kbeen in Afghanistan?

The group has steadily carried out attacks over the years. Itprimarily targets the Hazara a minority Shiagroup that has been subjected to violence from both the Taliban and ISIS-K, Kumar said.

"ISIS-K is not averse to high-casualty attacks and attracts the most radical of jihadists," she said.

Those attacks include the deadlyMay 2020 strike ona maternity hospital in a majority ShiaMuslim neighbourhood in Kabulthat killed at least24 people, including newborn babies and mothers. Months later, ISIS-K stormed a prison in eastern Afghanistan holding many of its fighters. The attackleft at least 39 people dead, including the assailants, but freed nearly 400 of itsfighters.

Just this year, ISIS-K has carried out dozens of attacks. United Nationscounterterrorism officials said in June that ISIS-K had carried out 77 attacks in Afghanistan in the first four months of this year, the New York Times reported. The attacks last year included a strike against Kabul University in November and a rocket barrage against the airport in Kabul a month later.

"They want to kill Shiites," said the Soufan Center's Clarke. "And what that does is that helps them attractthe most hardcore people that are really sociopathswho just want to kill civilians and don't care.So it's appealing to a lot of really hardcore Sunni jihadists."

What is the group'srelationship with the Taliban?

ISIS-K is an enemyof both al-Qaeda and the Taliban. The Taliban followthe conservativeDeobandi brand of Islam, as opposed to ISIS, which followsSalafism, Clarke said.

"So there's the ideological difference. And then really in every theatre from Africa, Asia al-Qaedaand ISIS are fighting, with al-Qaeda being aligned with the Taliban in Afghanistan. It's just another place where that's happening."

What current threat does ISIS-Kpose?

Following the full military withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan on Aug. 31, it is likely that ISIS-K will exploit the security vacuum to regenerate and quickly re-establish itself throughout at least the eastern region of the country, Kumar said.

"ISIS-K is a sworn enemy of the Taliban, which could incentivize the jihadist group to carry out attacks in an attempt to topple the self-imposed Taliban regime," she said.

While most analysts see the Taliban as a much stronger force in Afghanistan, "ISIS can make some noise," Clarke said. "They can cause a lot of trouble for the Taliban and certainly to Afghan civilians."

While ISIS-K has been relatively silent following the Taliban takeover of Kabul, it may be assessing the situation, busy taking hundreds of members released from Kabul's prisons to safe shelters, Abdul Sayedsaid.

"The recent past propaganda materials of ISKP after the Taliban peacedeal with the U.S. is allbased on declaring the Taliban an apostate group working as the U.S., West, and Pakistani stooges."

Long before the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban, he said, ISIS-K hadalready decided"that its main target in the future is the Taliban, for which they are readyto start a new and long war in Afghanistan."