At the top of Benjamin Netanyahu's agenda: self-preservation - Action News
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At the top of Benjamin Netanyahu's agenda: self-preservation

Israels prime minister may be among the most unpopular leaders anywhere in the democratic world, but by keeping the most extreme members of his governing coalition placated, he is denying opponents an opportunity to force an election. CBC's Chris Brown reports from Jerusalem.

Israel's PM has sided with coalition partners over families of hostages, foreign allies

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a ceremony marking Memorial Day for fallen soldiers of Israel's wars and victims of attacks, at Jerusalem's Mount Herzl military cemetery, May 13, 2024.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a ceremony at Jerusalem's Mount Herzl military cemetery on May 13 marking Memorial Day for fallen soldiers of Israel's wars and victims of attacks. His mastery of the art of political survival has so far enabled him to navigate the fallout from the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. (Gil Cohen-Magen/Reuters)

As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began addressing a solemn ceremonyin Jerusalem earlier this week commemorating the country's dead from wars and other hostilities,Nir Galon rose to his feet and proceeded with a silent,one-man protest.

Standing near the rear of the open-air auditorium,the 43-year-old Jerusalem IT entrepreneur unfurled a large Israeli flag with the date Oct. 7 etched in red and held it aloftuntil Netanyahu finished speaking.

As the prime minister, without looking up, returnedto his seat in the front row, another man in the audience yelled"Garbage!"

"He doesn't have the moral right to be here," Galon told CBC News after the ceremony.

Like many Israelis, Galon blames Netanyahu for not preventingtheHamas-ledattacks on Oct.7, whichleft more than1,200 dead and resulted in the capture of more than 250 hostages.Israel responded with a ferocious military campaign in Gaza that has killed upwards of 35,000 people, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.

Egyptian and Qatari mediators, prodded by CIA director William Burns, have tried for weeks to cajole both Hamas and Israel into accepting a truce along witha prisoner and hostage swap. The Palestinian militant grouphas held firm on a permanent ceasefire with anIsraeli withdrawal from Gaza, something Netanyahuhas saidis totally out of the question.

Protestor Nir Galon held a silent vigil throughout Benjamin Netanyahu's speach on Israel's Memorial Day.  He told CBC News the date of the October 7th attacks,  written in red were meant to show that Netanyahu has failed the country.
Protester Nir Galon holds a silent vigil in the audience of Netanyahu's speech on Israel's Memorial Day. Galon told CBC News the date of the Oct. 7 attack, written in red on an Israeli flag, was meant to show that Netanyahu had failed the country. (Adrian Di Virgilio/CBC)

Those talks appear to be in stasis, and Galon questions Netanyahu's motivation.

"I don't know what is his interest is he making a decision because it's in his political interest or because he actually cares about people?"

Top among Netanyahu's personal interestsis avoiding a criminal trial on a series of charges, including breach of trust and accepting bribes,which could proceed full steam ahead were he to lose the prime minister's job.

An alliance with 'Jewish supremacists'

Netanyahu not only boasts Israel's most successful electoral record having won six general elections but his mastery of the dark arts of political survival has so far enabled him to successfully navigate the fallout from the Oct. 7 attack and deflect blame.

His partners in Israel's coalition government include far-right parties led by cabinet ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich,whom left-leaning Israeli publications have called "Jewish supremacists."

WATCH | Pressure mounts on Netanyahu as war drags on:

Pressure mounts on Netanyahu as war drags on

4 months ago
Duration 2:56
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel is determined to defeat Hamas, but it has cost him support at home and abroad and put his political future in jeopardy.

Both men have called for Israel to sacrifice the remaining Israeli hostages and pursue the war against Hamas until the bitter end,with the ultimate goal of driving Palestinians out of Gazaand repopulating the territory with Jewish settlers.

Such calls for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza have infuriated Israel's allies, including the United States, and led to despair for the families of Israel's hostages. But Netanyahu has resisted every plea to distance himself from his far-right benefactors.

"The most important calculation [for Netanyahu] is how not to resign and stay in power. And he's done that," said Mitchell Barak, an American-Israeli political consultant and pollster based in Jerusalem.

Israel's National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir speaks at a convention calling for Israel to rebuild settlements in the Gaza Strip and the northern part of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, in Jerusalem, January 28, 2024.
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir speaks at a convention in Jerusalem on Jan. 28, 2024, calling for Israel to rebuild settlements in the Gaza Strip and the northern part of the Israeli-occupied West Bank. (Ronen Zvulun/Reuters )

With the support of the far-right parties, Netanyahu holds a four-seat majority in the Knesset, Israel's parliament. In spite of the withering andunrelentingdaily criticism he receives from those on Israel's left and in the political centre over his responsibility for the failures on Oct.7 and the conduct of the war,so farthe parliamentary math has not shiftedand he remains firmly in charge.

"For now, he's got a solid group of people who are backing him until they decide not to," Baraksaid. "His greatest fear is within the Knesset. The thing that can bring him down now is within the Knesset."

In the aftermath of last year's attacks, Netanyahu forged an emergency war cabinet,bringing in rival ministers from other parties in a bid to create a unified approach to the war against Hamas.

But on Wednesday,long-running fissures in that unity cracked wide open whenDefence Minister Yoav Gallant said Netanyahu's refusal to outline a strategy for running Gaza after the war had become untenable.

People take part in a protest demanding the immediate release of hostages who were kidnapped during the deadly October 7 attack, amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza between Israel and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, outside Israel's Ministry of Defence in Tel Aviv, Israel, May 16, 2024.
People take part in a protest outside Israel's Defence Ministry in Tel Aviv on Thursday demanding the immediate release of hostages who were kidnapped by Hamas-led militants on Oct. 7. (Ronen Zvulun/Reuters)

Defiance over conduct of war

Gallantsaid the administration of the territory must be turned over to "non-hostile" Palestinians with the involvement of the international community something Netanyahu and his right-wing partners have adamantly rejected,because they see it as a possible precursor to the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Gallant's position is roughly in sync with what the Biden administration in the U.S.has been advocating as part of its plan to wind down the fighting in Gaza and set the conditions for a longer-term solution to the Israeli-Palestinian question.

Netanyahu has forcibly resisted.

"There is no alternative to military victory," he said in a videoreleased by the prime minister's office on the same day as Gallant's message. "The attempt to bypass it with this or that claim is simply detached from reality."

Barak saidpublicly defying the U.S. may work toNetanyahu's advantageshould he end up fighting another election.

"He's like the victim he man that wants to save Israel and Joe Biden is stopping him," Barak said."That's the familiar place that he likes to be in."

Smoke rises from an explosion following an Israeli airstrike in northern Gaza, near the Israel-Gaza border, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, as seen from Israel, May 16, 2024.
Smoke rises from an explosion following an Israeli airstrike in northern Gaza, near the Israel-Gaza border, on Thursday. (Shannon Stapleton/Reuters)

Even so, recent public opinion surveys in Israel suggest Netanyahu is facing sizable political headwinds as he tries to push forwardwith the military operation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah,possibly at the expense of a peace deal.

A survey by the IsraelDemocracy Institutepublished on May 13indicated a majority (56 per cent) of the Jewish public in Israel sees a deal for the hostages as a higher priority than continuing with the war. The result held even for people who identified as voting for Netanyahu'sLikud party in the last election.

'He's sacrificing Israel's national security'

Eran Etzion,a former diplomat and Israeli political strategist,saidthe disconnect between the Netanyahu government and the Israeli public may yet pressure some of his coalition partners to reconsider their support.

"Netanyahu has long forgotten, or has long abandoned, this position of a reasonable prime minister," Etzion told CBC News from his home outside Jerusalem.

"He's acting completely out of his narrow political interests. He's sacrificing Israel's national security. He's acting against the will of 80 per cent of Israelis, against the deeper strategic interests of Israel in terms of its relations with the Americans, relations with Egypt."

Former Israel diplomat and political consulant Eran Etzion spoke to CBC News in the Israeli community of Shoresh,  outisde of Jerusalem.
Former Israeli diplomat and political consultant Eran Etzion says the disconnect between the Netanyahu government and the Israeli public may pressure some of his coalition partners to reconsider their support. (Adrian Di Virgilio/CBC)

Egypt, a one-time enemy that has forged a key security partnership over the past four decades,hasfiercely criticized Israel for proceeding with its incursion into Gaza. There aremultiple reports that Egypt may downgrade its diplomatic relationship.

But for many Israelis,it's the downturn in relations with the U.S. Israel's biggest providerof weapons that is most worrying.

Etzion saidit appears that through its near-daily public admonitions,the Biden administration is trying to go over Netanyahu's head and speak to Israelis directly.

"What the Americans are trying to do is to demonstrate to the Israeli public that ... their government is not representing their interests, and their government is actually working against their interests," Etzion said. "This is true around the negotiating table [with Hamas] and it's true in the wider sense of where this war is going."

After seven months of combat,Israeli forces are now returning to northern and central parts of Gaza where earlier they said Hamas had been subdued.In neighbouring Israeli communities,air raid sirens warning of rocket launches from Gaza have become a familiar sound again.

U.S. officials,such as Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have warnedthat Israel risks anarchy,chaos and an unending insurgency unless it comes up with a sustainable plan for the future of the territory.

Religious exemptions

So far,Netanyahu's defiance of the U.S. and the broader international community over the attacks on Rafah,along with his refusal to sack his extremist cabinet ministers for advocating war crimes in Gaza,has notcost him his political majority.

One potential threat,however, could upend the political math.

While serving in the military is mandatory for Israeli Jews, ultra-orthodoxmen have been able to avoid conscription by signing up for Torah study instead.

WATCH | Netanyahu defiant in face of U.S. warning against Rafah invasion:

Netanyahu defiant in face of U.S. warning against Rafah invasion

4 months ago
Duration 0:01
In a video released Thursday night, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu struck a defiant tone in an apparent rebuke to U.S. President Joe Biden's threat to cut off weapons shipments if Israel went ahead with a major operation in Rafah.

The country's high court hasordered an end to subsidiesfor Torahstudents, setting up another political fight between the country's far right and other parties, who argue the Haredim, as they're known,should have to do their part in defending the country.

The Haredim community has an extremely high birthrateand is expected to make up 40 per cent of Israel's population in the coming decades.

Benny Gantz,the leader of the Israel Resilience Party, who is a member of Netanyahu's coalition and his war cabinet, has said he will quit the government if the religious exemptions persist.

FILE PHOTO: An ultra-Orthodox Jewish demonstrator gestures, as ultra-Orthodox Jewish people attempt to block a main road, in protest against attempts to change government policy that grants ultra-Orthodox Jews exemptions from military conscription, at the entrance to Bnei Brak, Israel, April 1, 2024.
Ultra-Orthodox Jewish people attempt to block a main road at the entrance to Bnei Brak, Israel, on April 1, 2024, in protest against attempts to change government policy that grants ultra-Orthodox Jews exemptions from military conscription. (Ammar Awad/Reuters)

"There's a real problem within his cabinet, within his government," said Mitchell Barak,the political communications consultant.

But even if the government collapses over the Haredim issue,Barak saidNetanyahu's defeat in asubsequent election is not a foregone conclusion, despite his current unpopularity.

"I think he's focusing on the issue of [rejecting] a Palestinian state at this point and thinking that that's his ticket [for getting re-elected]."