Israeli warplanes pound Gaza. A ground invasion is expected. Does Hamas have an endgame?
Boosting support, scuttling Saudi-Israel deal, enacting revenge may all play a role
As war planes from Israel continueto pound Gaza and with a massiveground offensive of Israeli troops expected any day the rationale behind the massacre unleashed byHamas on the weekend that prompted Israel's severeretaliation may certainly seem unclear.
Hamas's attacks, which have killed more than 1,200 Israelis, prompted Israeli Prime Minister BenjaminNetanyahu to issue an official declaration of warthat has resulted in the deaths of at least 1,100people in Gazaand an estimated 250,000 peoplelefthomeless.
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The militant group's ultimategoal is the destruction of Israel and to establish an Islamiststate over the entire country. Despite thedevastatingattack, observers say Hamas is no closer to that outcome. So what, then, was itsendgame?
Scuttling the U.S.-Saudi-Israel normalization deal
The ongoing negotiations between the United States and Saudi Arabia to normalizeSaudirelations with Israel in exchange for a U.S. defence pact may have suffered a significant blow with these attacks.
Saudi Arabia's Foreign Affairs Ministry said in a statement that the kingdom had been warning of an "explosive situation as a result of the continued occupation and deprivation of the Palestinian people's legitimate rights."
Aziz Alghashian, a Saudi expert on Saudi-Israeli relations, told the Times of Israel that the statement was intended to dispel any notion that the kingdom would prioritize normalization at the expense of supporting the Palestinians.
"This kind of situation has made Saudi Arabia go back to its traditional role," he said.
Thepotential dealhas been very concerning for Iran, which is Hamas's biggest backer. And ithasprompted speculation that the Iranian government played some role in the attacks on Israel to help scupper any agreement.
But over the past months,Hamas officials have alsobeen quite open about the fact that this would be a huge event, a potential game-changer, said Matthew Levitt,director of the Jeanette and Eli Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
"I thinkHamas fears if therewas to be normalizationwith Saudi Arabia, other Muslimnations,other Arabnations, would follow suit," he told The Associated Press.
Some analysts believe Hamas wants a seat at the table forthe U.S.-Saudinegotiations, because it fears insofar as Palestinians will even be part of the talks that it's going to be its rival, thePalestinian Authority, and not Hamasthat plays a role.
"Through its recent actions, Hamas has sought to make it clear to all that lasting Middle East peace cannot happen without addressing the Israeli-Palestinian issue, with Hamas at the centreof these conversations,"Devorah Margolin,the Blumenstein-Rosenbloom Fellow at the Washington Institute, told CBC News in an email.
But to launch such an attack would dispel the notion that Hamas is rational and willing to negotiate,said Ron Hassner,the Helen Diller Family Chair in Israel Studies at the University of California, Berkeley.
"My interpretation is that Hamas understands that it will never have a seat at the negotiating table," he said. "So in my mind, what you're seeing from Hamas is a desperate last cry for attention."
Steven Cook,director of the International Affairs Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars at the Council on Foreign Relations, said in an email that he doubts the potential Saudi deal was much of a factor.
"I don't believe that the Saudi-Israel normalization was the target; the planning for Operation Al-Aqsa Flood had likely begun well before those talks had gotten serious. That said, if the war brings an end to Saudi-Israeli normalization, it is a win for Hamas(and Iran)."
If not destroy Israel, hurt andweaken it
The mastermind behind the assault, Palestinian militant Mohammed Deif, has said that the attack wasto end the world's longest occupation, meaning all of historic Palestine, Cook said.
"Of course, Hamas cannot do that, but they can draw Israel into a long, grinding conflict in the Gaza Strip that weakens Israel,"he said.
Gaza is such a dense urban place, with a population of two million people and filled with tunnels, Nathan Thrall, author and former director of International Crisis Group's Arab-Israel project, told CBC News Network.
"Hamasbelievesthey can exact a very high price on Israel for its presencethere, for enteringwith groundforces," he said.
Tareq Baconi, the author ofa bookabout Hamas in Gaza, said the militant groupis also trying to shatter Israel's senseof security.
"What Hamas is doing is trying to flip the table back on the Israelis, saying you can't forget about the Palestinian issue and we can undermine the myth of your invincibility," he told the New York Times."That in itself is a huge transformation in the Palestinian imagination, and I don't think we can see or understand the implications of it yet."
'A marketing strategy around the world'
The Washington Institute's Margolinsaid she believes that Hamas-led attacks were designed by the group to elicit a response from Israel seemingly so "disproportionate" that it would draw international condemnation and overshadow memories of Hamas's own violence.
But the deaths of many Palestinianscould also lead to new supporters forits cause.
"[It] could intensify grievances against Israel, strengthening arevenge impact among the Palestinian population," said Max Abrahms,an associate political science professor at Northeastern University in Boston, and an expert in international security, especially in the areas of terrorism and counterterrorism.
"It could serve as essentially a marketing strategy around the world to potential supporters that Hamas is a leading organization within the broader Islamist movement, which could lead tomore supporters, more money being spent," he said.
"I honestly think that Hamas wants Israel to kill as many Palestinian civilians as possible in order to validate their narrative that Israel is evil."
Hassner, of the University of California, agreed, saying that terrorists often rely on the notion that the enemy is going to respond disproportionately and that this will come at a great cost to the enemy.
"So perhaps the idea was to create such acts of outrage that the Israelis simply would not be able to fight in a restrained way," he said.
'Simple vengeance'
It's certainly possible that Hamas'sendgame was simply taking revenge on its great enemy, Israel, some analysts suggest.
"Ihonestly think one of their main goals was simple vengeance. Vengeance can have utility," Abrahms said.
"With many Palestinians in despair over their lives,by striking out and killing what they regardasthe illegal occupation and the settlements and maybe even terrorists, they could feel good about themselves for the few hours where they're slaughtering, you know, little children and Holocaust survivors."
Colin P. Clarke,a Senior Research Fellow at the Soufan Center in New York,said many Hamas members have been at war with the Israelis their entirelives, and someprobably think they have very little to lose given the dire conditions under which Palestinians live in Gaza.
"It seems like ... violence for the sake of violence in some ways," he said. "Don't discount revenge as a factor here."
Another theory is that Hamasmay have launched the attacks in hopes of encouragingothers to join the fight and open multiple fronts against Israel.
That could includea potential war with Lebanese militant group Hezbollah in the north, uprisings in the occupied West Bank and internal struggles fomented by Israel's Arab citizens, Margolin said.
Already, the attacks have prompted Hezbollah to fire some rockets into Israel.
"I think that Hamasfelt that if it does come to a ground war ... that it would start anotherfrom Hezbollah and Syria," the Washington Institute's Levitt said.
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