'Mistakes happen': How 'miscalculation' could spark a U.S.-North Korea conflict

Despite heightened tensions, many experts sayit's unlikely theU.S. and North Korea are headed toward imminentmilitary conflict.

While the leaders of both countries are impulsive andunpredictable, they are also desperate to avoid pre-emptivestrikes.

However, there remains thethreat, albeit small, of a miscalculation that amplified rhetoric, a militarymistake, or the misinterpretation of an action by any of the main actors in the regioncould snowball into something much larger.

• North Korea conducts war drills as U.S. guided-missile sub docks in South
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"We're talking about a highly unlikely chain of events happening all at oncealigning to createthat sort of circumstance," said Philip Yun, a former member of a government working group that managed U.S. policy and negotiations with North Korea under Bill Clinton."But that is a possibility and if it's going to happen, chances are it's going to happen in this heightened state.

"Mistakes happen, so when mistakeshappen, miscalculationis the enemy here."

War of words intensify

Every year around this time, tensions escalate between the U.S. and North Korea, as the Americans and their South Korean alliesengage in a series of joint military exercises. Those actions bring with them grave warnings from Pyongyang, which threatensto launch some kind of retaliatory attack.

On Tuesday,North Korea conducted a live-fire artillery drill, just asaU.S.-guided missile submarine arrived in South Korea, anda U.S. carrier headed to the KoreaPeninsulato hold a joint exercise with South Korea.

But this year, the war of words between the U.S. and North Koreahaveintensified, particularly from the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. The verbal barrages have been sparked by serious concerns that North Korea may be closing in on the development of a long range ballisticmissile that could be armed with a nuclear warhead and aimed atthe U.S.

This sense of urgency has also been spurred byreports thatNorth Koreais capable of producing a nuclear bomb every six or seven weeks, according to the New York Times.

"The Trump administration is jabbing much harder, talking more about the possibility of military action and just in general trying to ramp up thepressure," said Joel Wit, a senior fellow at the Washington-based U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS. "Then of course you get a North Korearesponse. So I think the combination of these two things has really heightened the temperature."

• Former U.S.-North Korea negotiator tells Trump administration to 'cool it'
• Mike Pence warns North Korea that 'era of strategic patience is over'

Meanwhile, the Trump administration is taking an unusual step today. All U.S. senators have been invited to the White House to be briefed by senior officials about North Korea. Those officials include Secretary of State RexTillerson, Defence Secretary JimMattis, director of national intelligenceDan Coatsand JosephDunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Some of Trump'sprovocative tweets against North Korea, including one that said the rogue state is "looking for trouble," have suggested that this administration is adopting a more aggressive tone.

However, Jonathan Pollack, interimSK-KoreaFoundation chair of Korea studies in the Center for EastAsia Policy Studies,saidthe president is surrounded by serious advisers whohaveeither served or servein the military,and are aware of the risks of military action.

Sober education

"I think Trump, whatever his publicposture,is getting a sobereducationon some of the realities."

As for North Korean leader KimJong-un, Yun said there's a lot of hysteria over hissecretive North Korean government and concerns itwill launch a pre-emptive strike.

"We look at North Korea inone-dimensional stereotypes that they're crazy and they could do anything," Yun said. "But they are not crazy, they are not irrational, they are not suicidal."

But Yun suggested it's still possible one of the regional actors could misinterpret an action, or that one of these [test] missiles goes off course and accidentally hits an important target.

"Things can startspirallingout of control."

Seoul and Pyongyang have remained technically in a state of war since the 1950-53 Korean War. Therehave been skirmishesin the past, exchange ofartillery fire across the DMZ, naval clashes, and missiles have gone off course. Hostilitiesramped up in 2010 following the sinkinga South Korean warship that left46 sailors dead, in an incident that Seoul blamedon the North Korea.

"There's a long history of these kinds of incidents and so far, they've been managed wellin terms of avoiding escalation," Wit said.

Pollacksaid deterrence has worked remarkably well for more than 60 years as both sidesunderstandthe consequences of taking military action.

"The question is whether those ground rules are changing now. I don't believe they are," he said.

Still,miscalculation is a concern, Pollacksaid, andtoo much rhetoric and idle chatter from both sides aboutpre-emptivestrikes could lead one side to seriously consider taking action.

"There are extraordinaryinhibitionsin the use of force, but that's not a guarantee."

Window closing

But with North Korea on a path tolong-range nuclear missile capability,the window is closing on stopping that program, said RodgerBaker, vice-president of strategic analysis atStratfor.

Does that mean the U.S and North Korea are on the brink of conflict? No, he said.But the world has somewhere between 18 and 36 months to convince North Koreans to change their course of action, Bakersaid.

"I'd say we are on the brink in regards to an 18-month time frame, not on the brink in regards to [conflict] this weekend."