Orlando shooting: ISIS quick to claim responsibility but it's likely bluffing, says analyst

Omar Mateen pledged his allegiance to ISIS, but in the aftermath of the Orlandomassacre, familiar questions are being asked: was he directed to kill by leaders of theself-proclaimed Islamic State, or did he invoke the ISIS name to add notoriety to whatwould become the worst mass shooting by a single shooterinAmerican history?

Al-Bayan, the ISIS radio station that broadcasts in Iraq, claimed Monday morning thatMateen was "one of the soldiers of the caliphate in America."

A short statement on Sunday from the ISIS-linked Amaq News Agency claimed "anIslamic State fighter" wasresponsible for the killings, but the brief statement, short ondetails, offers a hint that ISIS leaders were unaware of the attack before it happened.

"I would be very surprised to find out that they had known him in advance," said YoramSchweitzer, who studies terrorist organizations at the Institute for National SecurityStudies in Tel Aviv, Israel.

With the investigation into Mateenisstill in early days, law enforcement agencies haveyet to find any evidencethat the 29-year-old American had direct links to ISIS. Itappears his radicalization happened recently.

Little evidence of networks

Mateen's call to a 911 operator pledging allegiance to ISIS is the third time an attackerin the United States has dedicated an act of violence to the jihadist group.

Tashfeen Malik posted an oath of loyalty to ISIS on her Facebook page before she andher husband, Syed Rizwan Farook, killed 14 people in San Bernardino, Calif., lastDecember.

"The investigation so far has developed indications of radicalization by the killers, and ofpotential inspiration by foreign terrorist organizations," said James Comey, the directorof the FBI, said at the time."There's no indication that they are part of a network."

One of two gunmen who tried to ambush an event in Texas featuring controversialcartoons of the Prophet Muhammad, Elton Simpson, used Twitter to link himself toISIS. Along with Nadir Soofi, Simpson was killed by police in Garland, Texas, in May2015.

Since its inception, ISIS has used its vast propaganda network to call on fighters aroundthe globe to carry out attacks in its name.

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It did just that about three weeks ago, when the group's spokesman, Abu Muhammadal-Adnani, urged followers to commit acts ofviolence in a speech ahead of the start of the Muslim holymonth of Ramadan, which began last week.

"We have a special message to the soldiers of the caliphate and its supporters inEurope and the U.S.," Adnanisaid "Thesmallest attack you carry out on their own turf isbetter and more beloved to us than the largest attack we carry out here. It is moreuseful to us and more harmful to them."

ISIS happy to claim 'lone wolf' attackers as its own

It was Adnani who called for attacks against Canadians in September2014. Thespokesman also praised Michael Zehaf-Bibeau for killing Cpl. Nathan Cirillo at theNational War Memorial in Ottawa a month later. Adnani said that followers who had"the opportunity to shed blood" should do so.

Despite these acts of violencebeing interpreted by manyanalysts as the actions of"lone wolf" attackers, ISIS is keen to claimthem as its own. Itgives the militants publicity, and in the case of the Orlando massacre, draws attentionaway from the group's recent losses.

ISIS fighters are on the defensive in Fallujah, Iraq, and in an area near its de factocapital,Raqqa, Syria. An analysisby the respected defence and security consulting groupIHS, which owns theJane's publishing group,found that ISIS has lost more than 20 per centof its territory in Iraq and Syria.

"ISIS is not denying [the Orlando attack] and definitely would like to embrace it,"Schweitzer said. "Theattack increases their power image, especially in this time of dire straights, as they arein now."

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