Republicans stuck in an 'electoral cul-de-sac?' That's how it looks near Denver - Action News
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Republicans stuck in an 'electoral cul-de-sac?' That's how it looks near Denver

The story of one Colorado county suggests Republicans are in "an electoral cul-de-sac." U.S. suburbs are becoming younger, more educated and diverse and that's bad news for the GOP unless it changes, Kim Brunhuber writes from a suburb near Denver.

U.S. suburbs becoming younger, more educated and diverse and that's bad news for the GOP

A sign of change in Arapahoe County, Colo.: a Latino household holds a yard sale in a suburb that used to be almost exclusively white. (Kim Brunhuber/CBC)

The key to winning the White House may well lie in the way early voters marked the ballots now locked inside a box in Arapahoe County, Colo.

For two hours, those voters in Aurora, about 30 kilometres east of Denver, were also asked which name they'd checked for the next president of the United States.

"I'm pro-Hillary and anti-Trump," says Patti Dub, whose husband is of Canadian heritage.

"My decision is to vote for Hillary," says Kimberly Thebeau.

In two hours, all except one of those20 or so voters said they pickedClinton, the Democratic candidate locked in a battle with Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump.

Tom Robinson, political science chair at the University of Colorado Denver, says that old, white, male voters are no longer the centre of American politics and the Republicans havent shifted their strategy to reflect this. (Kim Brunhuber/CBC)

For Republicans, this is bad news. Really bad. Because what's happening here is slowly happening in suburbs across the United States.

Twenty years ago, Colorado was a red state. And this suburb of Arapahoe Countyjust half an hour outside Denver was just as Republican as the rural outskirts.

More diversity

"The southern ring counties in Colorado used to be the most conservative in the state," says TonyRobinson, political science chair at the University of Colorado Denver.

"In the last two election cycles, Arapahoe County has voted Republican at the presidential level."

So what happened?

First, Colorado started becoming younger, more educatedand more diverse. It began in Denver, then the ripple slowly spread.

"They're moving into the suburbs," says Robinson, "and when they do they change those voting patterns. And the suburbs are no longer reliably red."

Charles Twitty says he was the only person of colour in his neighbourhood 15 years ago. Now Aurora is a 'melting pot.' (Kim Brunhuber/CBC)

Fifteen years ago, Charles Twitty was the only person of colour in his neighbourhood. Not anymore.

"Colorado, especially Arapahoe County, is becoming a melting pot," he says as he drops off his vote for Clintonat the ballot box.

The problem is, Robinson says, the Republicans' message doesn't appeal to these new suburban voters.

"Donald Trump represents the old notion, that kind of old, white, male voters are the centreof American politics, and he isspeaking to them. And that once was true in a county like Arapaho County. It is no longer true."

Some Colorado politicians are trying to adapt. Mike Coffman,theRepublican congressman who represents Arapahoe County, cut an ad dumping onTrump.

Latinos aren't buying it

"Honestly," he says in the ad, "I don't care for him much."

Then Coffman released an adin Spanish.

But Arapahoe County resident Luiz Castillo says mostLatinos he knows aren't buying itand they're coming out in droves to vote for Democrats.

"This year they know it's very important for them," Castillo says. "They know that we get very affected if we don't go out there and vote."

The southern ring counties in Colorado used to be the most conservative in the state. However, during one recent two-hour period, all but one early voter dropping off ballots at this box in Aurora said they were voting for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. (Kim Brunhuber/CBC)

These demographic changes aren't just happening in Colorado. Robinson says there's a similar patterninGeorgia, Virginia and Pennsylvania.

AndColorado's demographic transition, he says, "is leading the way that America is changing in general."

The other reason Trump signs here are a rare sight: Republican candidates have become too right wing for many suburban Republicans.

For the first time, Matthew Dionne says he isnt voting for a Republican. He says hes tired of being forced to vote for more and more extreme candidates. (Kim Brunhuber/CBC)

Matthew Dionne says the partyexpectshim to vote for these more extreme Republicans simply out of party loyalty.

"We're being dragged kicking and screaming to vote for whatever candidate they've dragged forward for us."

Now, for the first time, he says he's not voting Republican.

And these trends are bigger than Trump.

Robinson believes what's happening in Arapahoe County suggests the Republican party 'is in an electoral cul-de-sac. A dead end.' (Kim Brunhuber/CBC)

Robinson saysidentification with the Republican party in Colorado has gone down five per cent in the last 10 years. Across the U.S., the Republicans have lost most major urban areas.

"The Republican party right now is in an electoralcul-de-sac," Robinsonsays. "A dead end. Any party that is continuing to build its base on 70 per cent of its voters aswhite males has no future."

The electoral math may comedown to this equation: win back Arapahoe County, win back the White House.

Follow the U.S. election onTuesday, Nov.8with CBC News

CBC online:Our day starts first thing in the morning atcbcnews.cawith news and analysis, then as polls close you can get live results and insights into the conversations happening on the ground and online. We'll cover the story from a Canadian perspective all day until a new U.S. president is declared.
CBC Television:America Votes, the CBC Newselection special with Peter Mansbridge, starts at9 p.m. ET on CBC-TV and CBC News Network.
CBC Radio One:Our election special hosted by Susan Bonner and Michael Enright starts at8 p.m. ET.