Romney's pick for VP: Who's it going to be?

Mitt Romney has a problem. He hasn't even secured the Republican nomination yet, and the chattering classes are alreadygoing onabout how his pick for running mate might make or break his campaign.

With months to go before August's Republican National Convention, that's all it is at this point chatter. Fun, pointless chatter that keeps us politics nerds reading, retweeting and speculating for months.

And what's the harm in that? No one picked Sarah Palin four years ago, so the speculationnet's being casted pretty wide this timearound.

But after thefascinating, polarizingwhirlwindthat wasPalin's selectionin John McCain's ultimatelydoomed presidential bid, the overwhelming message toRomney's camp from this chatter is clear: No pressure, dude.

The speculation over the vice-presidential pickusually centresonwhat the media perceives as acandidate's weakness in the eyes of voters, either on issues (like changing your viewson abortion, downplayingyour own health-care reform record), biography (saying your wifedrives "a couple of Cadillacs" and some of your friends are "NASCAR team owners") or evenfilling a geographic/electoral math hole (Ohio, Florida, step right up).

The VP pick is "all about either shoring up a weakness of yours to keep people from talking about it or emphasizing, 'Heres what this election's about,' "said John Barry Ryan, a political science professor at Florida State University who conducts research on campaigns and media coverage of elections.

Whoever it is, the pickshouldn't be a drag on the ticket "because it will never be that much of a boost," he added.

The contenders

Marco Rubio:The Republican version of a rock star, Rubio has recently tried to downplay talk of him being the Republican VP nominee. Last week, he praisedJeb Bush as a "fantastic choice"for the job, in what could be an attempt to show he's not trying to steal the spotlight from Romney.

"Its like any relationship, in that you dont want to look better than your partner," Ryan said.

Rubio,arookie senator from the battleground state ofFlorida, couldlighta spark amongthe party's right-wing memberswho areless thanthrilled with Romney's conservativecredentials. Rubio, Ryan said, "has the ability to speak in a way that the further-right tea party parts of the Republican party like, but without doing it in such a way that alienates more moderate voters."

At the same time,Rubio couldimprove Republican attempts to build bridges with America's growing Hispanic community, whose membershave traditionally favoured Democrats andlikelystill have fresh memories ofRomney's tough stance on illegal immigrationduring the primaries.

The charismaticson of Cuban immigants who fled Fidel Castro's regime also brings a certainX-factor to the Republicanticket, in that he's "young, tells a good story and looks good," Ryan said. While selecting a Cuban-Americanfrom a state where the community has long held a position of influencewill likely bolster Romney's chances in Florida, the move won't automatically deliverthe Sunshine State'selectoral college votes to the Republican ticketin November.

Rob Portman: Heralded asthis week'ssafe pick, the Ohio senator has alegislative and budgetbackgroundthat could be used to emphasizethe Romney campaign's message of beingmore qualified economic stewardsthan Barack Obama. Portman also represents a swing state the Republicans need to win to get back the White House.

Online news siteBuzzfeed recently conducted an informal survey of Republican insidersand found Portman was their top choice for the vice-presidential slot.

But Portman was also head of the Office of Budget Management during the George W. Bush administration, and fiscal critics especially conservatives have long pointed toWashington'srepeated failure to manage thebehemoth federal budget at all.

Jeb Bush: Bush, a popular former Florida governor,bringshis family'spresidential pedigree and was rumoured to be a potential convention saviour for Republicans if Romney failed to secure the delegates needed to become the party's nominee. Bush effectively ended that dream last month byendorsing Romney after his winin the Illinois primary.

Bush could sit 2012 out forthe sake of his own ambitions,Ryan said, citing whispers in Florida circles that Bush might want to run in four years. Ifhe does, hewouldn't mindtoo muchif Romney lost now.

"I see no advantage to him being the vice-presidential nomination because if they win,eight years from now, time may have passed him by, and if they lose, he's now known as the guy who lost with Mitt Romney," Ryan said.

But Bush could still say yes to secure a legacy beyond his state without all the pressures and scrutiny of being commander in chief. "Maybe he doesnt want to be president, but wants that spot in history," Ryan added.

Tim Pawlenty: The former Minnesota governor, whowas on the vice-presidential short list for McCain's 2008 campaign, ended his own presidentialcampaign last August after failing to generate any enthusiasm for his bid.

Popular among tea party conservatives and Romney's campaign, Pawlenty won't overshadow the presidential candidate in a way similar to Palin's presence over McCain in 2008.

Paul Ryan: A fiscal hawk, and vocal critic of Obama's health-care legislation, the Wisconsin congressman's stature has continued to grow in the party and had sparked talk about a2012 presidential bid. As chair of the House of Representatives budget committee,Ryan isthepublic face and private crafter of theRepublicans' most recentbudget proposal, whichwas immediatelyblasted by Democrats.

For all his profile, manywithinthe Republican establishment view Ryan's latest budgetdraftas a "political disaster," Ryan said.

Nikki Haley: The youngest governor in the nation is viewed as a rising star in the Republicanparty.Haley, the governor of South Carolina, has been a vocal supporter for Romney in her home state. Nevermind that he lost South Carolina's primary to Newt Gingrich.

For her part,Haley, a South Carolina-born Indian-American,recently saidin a lengthy profile in Vogue magazinethat she would decline the VP nomination if offered.

Chris Christie: ThefirebrandNew Jersey governor and former prosecutoris highly popular in Republican circles forslashing government spending and taking on unions since being elected in 2009, so much so that many in the party wished Christie hadrun for the top of the ticket. Instead, he's stumped for Romney during the primaries, often as the candidate's warm-up intro act.

And the big guy surecan warm up a crowd.At aNew Hampshire Romneyevent in January,Christie shot down female Occupy hecklerswith a Jersey comebackthat was perhaps too PG-13 rated for presidential campaigns and showed Christie might burn a little too brightly standing next to Romney.

Kelly Ayotte: Elected to the Senate in 2010, Ayotte, a former New Hampshire attorneygeneral,has been an early Romney backer and represents another crucial state for Republicansin November's presidential election.

"Romney's probably got to win New Hampshire" towin the presidency,according to FSU'sRyan, whocited the state's electoral votes askey for George W. Bush in the hotly contested and still controversial 2000 presidential election.

"You get a woman from New Hampshire, a pick that the news will spin as smart. It will give him a good couple of weeks, and she wont embarrass him on the campaign trial and won't look more interesting than him."