Ukraine crisis: Why Turkey is silent as NATO operations ramp up

NATO is hunkering downin central and eastern Europe for its mission to reassure allies, just as Ukraine sees a major escalation this week of the rebellionwhen forces backing Russia opened fire on police in the east.

The violence prompted the ever-vigilant U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to call the troops to arms, sayingthese events are a"wake-up call" to NATO allies because the West believes Russia is fomenting theunrest and stirring up the rebels in Ukraine.

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But oneally is curiously keeping its distance Turkey,a NATO member state since 1952 and Russia's neighbour across the Black Sea with the potential to wield much influence with Moscow.

In fact, Turkeyrecently agreed to increase its energy supply from Russia, while other countries are talking about scalingback.

Turkey bound by domestic issues

To be fair, Turkey has echoed the prevailing Western sentiment, calling for a diplomatic solution to the crisis and forUkraine's territorial integrity tobe respected but that was before the Crimean referendum, which directly impacted theTatar minority (ethnically related to the Turks).

The indigenous Tatars, which make up 12 per cent of thepopulation in Crimea,have a history of strainedrelations with ethnic Russians in the region.They were expelled from Crimea by Joseph Stalin after the Second World War and only began to return in the 1980s.

They fiercely opposed theannexation of Crimea, fearing a return of Russian rule. The Tatars boycotted the referendum, which ultimately resulted in the Crimean peninsula being parcelled off to Moscow.

Since then, Turkey haskept tight-lipped,largely due to domestic reasons, according to experts.

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"Weve seen the Turkish government be very quiet on this because Russia'sa very important trade partner, said BessmaMomani, an associate professor at theBalsillie School of International Affairs at the University of Waterloo in Ontario.

I think people are underestimating the importance of the NATO alliance.- DavidCarment, fellow at the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute

Russia is Turkey's main import sourceabout $26billion worth in 2012, with natural gas alone accounting for about $12billion of the total. Russia alsosuppliesnearly 60 per cent of Turkey's energy demand. Last week, Turkeyagreed to bring in more Russian gas through its Blue Stream pipeline, which enters via the Black Sea.

Turkey,alreadyfraught with domestic woes, includingPrime MinisterRecep TayyipErdogan's failed Twitter ban to silence a corruption scandal thatspawned a rashof violent protests,has enough on its plate, with thepresidential election looming in August. Any disruption of energy supplies or cost at the behest of the West could haveseriouspolitical implications.

They basically dont want to rock the boat that way, Momani said.

'Great potential to be a leader,' expert says

David Carment, a fellowat the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute, agreed that Turkey benefits from Russian economic prosperity and thuswould be more cautious than other countries.

Carmentadded that Turkish and Russian relations have a complex history, and the two countries are linked ethnically, with people from Turkey living acrossRussia. Thus, Turkey has a bigger strategybeyond the Tatar community, which is why it didn't look solely at the Crimean situation to react.

"It has great potential to be a leader," he said, even ifAnkara's "not stepping up in the way we expected them to."

For one,Turkey commands a very powerful military, which has the ability to block the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. There has already been some tensionbetween the nations in recent weeks over U.S. warships in the sea.

As well, Turkey still has a strong military commitment tothe West, Carment said.

"I think people are underestimating the importance of the NATO alliance," he said.

Principle of collective security doesn't apply

It's not a question of ambivalence, because if the territorial integrity of any member state wereto be threatened, Ankara would get involved, Carmentsaid

As it happens,central and eastern Europe region is seeing an increased NATO presence,with troops and equipment deployedfrom the U.S. and Britain and now Canada taking formation in the Baltic states and participating in military exercises in preparation for thechance that the Russian bear decides to makea swipe.

However, the likelihood of Russia entering a NATO state, he added, is slim to none, even as it conductsmilitary drills on its western border.

Despite NATO's preparations, Momani said, Turkey will not be compelled to get involved in the Ukrainian conflict because the principle of collective security doesn't apply. Ukraine is not a NATO member state.

So don't count on Turkey to resolve the Ukrainian crisis.

At least it won't, while the U.S., and in some waysCanada, is dominating the rhetoric and pushing Turkey and other regional players to the margins.

America just needs to "butt out," Carmentsaid, sothat Turkey could fix the problem and engage Russia in the solution.

"Let the regional players resolve it."