Ukrainian leader's rude awakening: In Washington, his country's destiny is a bargaining chip

A U.S. senator looked at Ukraine's president in a meeting and informed him: This problem is nothing personal.

He was referring to the potential expiry of American military support tens of billions of dollars' worth of weapons transfers that hassustained Ukraine's self-defence for nearly two years against Russian forces.

"It's got nothing to do with you," Republican Lindsey Graham told Volodymyr Zelenskyy, attempting to reassure him during his Washington tour Tuesday.

"You've done everything anybody could ask of you."

It's caught up, he explained, in a domestic American dispute. It's the poisoned politics of migration, which now risks killing a security bill lumping together funding for Ukraine, Israeland thesouthern U.S. border.

Meanwhile, military aid for Ukraineruns out in a couple of weeks, leadingdefence analysts topredictthe country at war with Russiawould be lucky simply to hold the territory it already has.

Zelenskyy left town without any commitments.

It was not the celebratory welcome he received just a year ago on his first Washington visit.This time, Zelenskyy was subjected to insults on social media from Donald Trump Jr. and from the head of a Trump-aligned political committee who called him an "ass" for not wearing a suit.

So is the funding package dead? Not necessarily.

The dimmest glimmer of optimism emerged from a late-afternoon meeting on Capitol Hill, which unfolded while Zelenskyy was across town meeting President Joe Biden.

4 political obstacles to a deal

At the Capitol, a few Democratic and Republican senators met with White House staff and the secretary of homeland securityin an effort to find some sort of migration compromise.

While leaving the meeting, top Democratic negotiatorChris Murphysaid,"We made progress." Kirsten Sinema, aformer centristDemocrat that isnow Independent, concurred calling it"substantive progress."

What's left to be determined is whether that progress winds up overcoming four towering political obstacles.

One is getting a deal with the necessary bipartisan votes to pass the Senate. Then, can it pass the far more conservativeRepublican-led House? It will need Democratic votes, but how many will be lost in a progressive backlash? And, finally, can this happen before a looming deadline asCongress departs this week for its holiday break?Ukraine funds could run out during the holidays.

WATCH | Why it's so hard for U.S. politicians to agree on war funding:

Inside the U.S. Senate deadlock that could doom Ukraine funding | About That

8 months ago

Duration 9:47

A fight over border security measures has left more aid to Ukraine hanging in the balance. Andrew Chang explains what's behind this Senate deadlock and what it could mean for Ukraine's future.

There's already fury from the left over a reportthe Biden administration is willing to reimpose strict expulsion rules enacted by Donald Trump during the pandemic.

If House Republicans got their way, the deal would replicate their existing legislation that completes Trump's wall with Mexico,cracks down on asylumand makes it easier to detain and deport unaccompanied migrant children.

The other thing Republicans want is clarity on what exactly thestrategic objective of the United Statesis in Ukraine in other words, what's the goal here?

House Speaker Mike Johnson shared an anecdote Tuesday to drive home his point that America's Ukraine plan is almost comically opaque, with the very people leading it misaligned on what they're trying to achieve.

In a radio talk show interview, he said the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine told him the goal was to have Ukraine reclaim Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014.

"And I said [to the ambassador], 'Ma'am, are you aware that that's not what your boss says?' I mean, they don't even know in the White House itself what the strategy is," Johnson said Tuesday.

Needed: Ammunition for a brutal winter

That strategy may be in flux,The New York Times reported Tuesday, asthe U.S. plans tosendmilitary advisers to Ukraine next month to hold war games and map out a new planamid fear Ukraine will lose this war.

The House Speaker did offer Zelenskyy one intangible thing Tuesday: Moral support. Johnson told him Ukraine deserves to prevail.

"I reiterated to him that we stand with him and against Putin's brutal invasion. They're on the right side of this fight," he told reporters afterward.

Now what Ukraine wants, above all else, is ammunition.

A former Ukraine analyst at the CIA and National Security Council came back from a trip there describing that country's fears.

There are the economic fears: Amonster national budget deficitafter a year where the country lost almost one-third of its economy, which is one reason Zelenskyy was at the World Bank promoting his idea of using frozen Russian assets to fund the Ukrainian government.

Then there's the military fear of being pounded by Russian artillery, orhaving the cold of winter weaponized against it.

"They're worried about a particularly brutal winter. In terms of Russian air and missile attacks against energy infrastructure and so on," CIA and White House veteranEric Ciaramellatold the Lawfare podcast.

His own concern is that even if the war seems static now,Russia'seconomy is relatively resilient, and the country ismassively investing in new defence production.

Optimism the mission

Zelenskyy deployed a clear political strategy in Washington: Project optimism.

The U.S. capital is notorious for proving the dictum that success breeds successas victories build political capital and attract more legislative support.

Zelenskyy emphasizedUkraine has reclaimed half its lost territory, anddestroyed Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Ukraine'seconomy has even stabilized this year after a catastrophic 2022.

And in 2024, he said, itintends to destroy Russia's air superiority by taking advantage of partners trainingUkrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets.

The leader of Senate Republicans, Mitch McConnell, said Zelenskyy"is inspirational."

Such optimism was reinforced by the Biden administration, which released purported U.S. intelligence that Russia's tanks and soldier ranks from early 2022 have been almost entirely wiped out.

The president announced a transfer of $200 million worth of U.S. gear the 53rd such transferfrom a previously approved fund.

"I don't want you giving up hope," Biden told Zelenskyy. Later in the day, at a news conference, the president said: "I'll not walk away from Ukraine. And neither will the American people."

Yet notes of pessimism pervaded the visit.

Give up territory? 'That's insane'

The top Senate Democrat, Chuck Schumer, shuddered at the implications of a Putin triumph, imagining that future generations might look back on it as a turning point in the ascent of autocracy.

"If Ukraine falls, it will be a historic, colossal tragedy," he said.

Zelenskyy himself was asked, by a Ukrainian reporter, about the chance of him relinquishing some of its lost eastern territory in still-hypothetical peace negotiations.

He responded with outrage. Those territories, he said, are a piece of Ukraine, home to Ukrainians, who have been killed, torturedand raped Ukrainians who have families, and friends, elsewhere in the country.

"That's insane, to be honest," Zelenskyy replied in Ukrainian. To the people who suggest this, he said: "I ask these people,'Are they ready to give their children to terrorists?' I think not."

He was speaking at the White House while contemplating a fate that has nothing and everything to do with negotiations unfolding two kilometres to the easton Capitol Hill.