Rising risk

In his 17 years of living on the Saint Andrews waterfront, Ron Ramsay has seen his share of violent weather. But the storm of Jan. 13 was something altogether different.

With heavy winds and an unusually high tide, it battered his neighbourhood on a short peninsula jutting into Passamaquoddy Bay, leaving its streets awash in seaweed and saltwater.

"It was a very high tide and the wind was right smack in front of the house," Ramsay said.

Fortunately, the retired civil engineer was ready for the tempest. 

Hed learned from previous storms, and in 2010 persuaded his neighbours to join him in building a reinforced seawall to protect their properties. The palisade of railway ties standing on end, or soldiered, encases a section of rock followed by another row of ties.  

Ramsay said he has since weathered storms without any serious damage to his property. A good thing, as he has no flood insurance. He can attest to the fact that the stark beauty of coastal living comes at a price.

Long revered as the Picture Province for its spectacular views of sun-dappled waves and wide beaches, New Brunswick has another side of life that many ignore at their peril. 

Rising sea levels, sudden, catastrophic rainstorms, hurricanes, ice jams, erosion and recurrent warnings from climate experts that this is the new normal all provide a sobering reminder that waterfront living has its drawbacks.

To meet these challenges, New Brunswick has compiled one of the most comprehensive flood-mapping websites in the country. But as insurers and mortgage lenders increasingly refuse business in flood-risk areas, the provinces flood hazard maps may be the key to keeping  property owners and prospective buyers from encountering flooding or financial disaster.

CBC News has found the flood-hazard mapping system is not without its shortcomings. While the province may be leading the way in using flood history to predict future risk, New Brunswick has no regulations requiring flood risk be assessed prior to building or purchasing a home. 

Saint Andrews Mayor Brad Henderson said many homeowners and buyers who insist on coastal living do themselves no favours.

He watched closely as the January storm assaulted his towns picturesque shoreline, pounding its wharf and marketplace. In the defence against climate change, the Bay of Fundy town of about 2,050 is on the front line. 

Everybody wants to be close to the ocean," he said. "Theyre going to be close to the ocean.

Youve got to look at what your projections are. Youve got to be aware of the power of the ocean.

When the ocean really wants to come, the ocean can find a way.

Saint John Realtor Jake Palmer knows better than most the irresistible lure of waterfront living. Its a choice many make before weighing all the risks.

"I find that my role, about half the time, is to talk people out of properties especially if people are coming here from away, they don't really understand the flooding or what waterfront properties are like."

For those inclined to brush aside such warnings, a future of flooded basements, property erosion and declining resale values may await. 

In a province renowned for its rivers, lakes and seashore, battling the weather and keeping floodwaters at bay should come as no surprise. 

Increasingly, it isnt just waterfront properties at risk. As a changing climate alters weather patterns, there is no refuge from flooding, said Kathryn Bakos of the Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation in Waterloo, Ont. 

People think, 'Well, I'm not near a body of water, she said. That doesn't matter anymore because these storms are coming down with greater force. If you live anywhere it rains, you're at risk of flooding.

From the freshet floods of 2014, 2018 and 2019 to the furor of post-tropical storm Fiona in 2022, natural disasters causing flooding have drained provincial and federal coffers of more than $380 million in disaster financial assistance in New Brunswick alone over the past decade. 

That doesnt include the millions of dollars shelled out in private insurance claims. 

That growing expense and the certainty it will only get larger are why New Brunswick has spent time and money on preparing the comprehensive system of online maps that can warn contractors, municipalities and home-buyers of the risks of building, and living, in flood-prone areas.

Geoscientist Don Fox leads the provincial group responsible for developing and strengthening  the website. While the New Brunswick Flooding Hazard Map Viewer may not sound that alluring, insurers and climate experts praise it as one of the countrys most comprehensive flood resources.

Anyone can access the website and evaluate the history and future risk of flooding for properties across the province. A user can look at a map overview of New Brunswick and zoom in on areas of interest, or type a specific town or address into its search bar for more precise viewing. 

The user can then select different colour-coded flood risk scenarios, differentiated by the level of risk of a scenario happening in any given year, to judge how well, or how poorly, a property might fare. 

It's a useful tool for those who know about it and know how to use it. Its strength, said Fox, is in the data backing it up. New Brunswick has plenty to work with, since floods here are widely varied and frequent.

"There's coastal flooding related to storm surges and high winds and wave action, there's inland flooding just related to precipitation and snow melt, and then there's ice jam flooding in certain areas, said Fox. New Brunswick has all of that.

The map can be tailored to show pink, purple, blue and orange layers over a basemap of the province. Each colour represents the reach of floodwaters. Two of the options represent either a one per cent or five per cent chance annually of flooding, based on historical data. The other layers show that same risk, but with climate-change impact projections for the next 75 years factored in. 

The layers only show the breadth of flooding, however, and dont yet show depth. So while the map's bird's-eye perspective may show a house fully under water, it's more likely the building is surrounded by water but not submerged. 

According to Fox, his department is already preparing the next generation of maps to correct that quirk and show the actual depth of water. 

But even with the tool's quirks, Realtor Jake Palmer appreciates access to the vital information the maps provide. 

It means that instead of relying on the seller's knowledge to protect the buyers, we can use tools that are right in front of us, he said. 

And we can print these off and stand on the property and look at where the mapping shows the water and say, OK, it seems close but because the property is high we're not at risk. 

Or in some instances it's way too close for comfort and so it really lowers the risk for sellers and for buyers and for agents as well. 

The bigger problem may not be the availability of relevant and useful flooding information but whether consumers know when and how to use it and who's acting in their best interests. Neither the province nor the New Brunswick Real Estate Association requires the maps be consulted ahead of a home sale or a new build. 

When CBC asked why the province doesnt make the use of flood mapping mandatory for real estate transactions, the Department of Environment and Local Government avoided the question. In a written statement, a department spokesperson said it makes flood hazard information readily available to all including home purchasers, vendors and their real estate agents, as a way to inform their decision-making and warns consumers should do due diligence before making any decisions. 

I dont think most New Brunswickers know their real estate agents and the person selling their home dont need to give that information, Bakos said. 

The New Brunswick Real Estate Association stresses the professional obligation its members have to divulge known flood history and future risk, with the threat of possible legal action from an aggrieved party if they dont. 

But there is no explicit legal obligation for Realtors to consult flood mapping ahead of a transaction. Risk can still be tough to gauge, even with the best tools.

Few people expected the torrents of rain that hit Edmundston last June. Well away from any coastline and safely past the spring freshet, the area was still drenched by 70 mm of rain in an hour.

Engorged streams tore out culverts and left homes in danger of being washed away. More than 100 households were damaged at an estimated cost to taxpayers of more than $20 million. 

Barely a month later, an even more intense localized storm hit central Nova Scotia, dropping up to 300 mm of rain within 24 hours. The deluge took four lives, washed out roads, swept away culverts and cars and left more than $170 million in insured damage, according to figures provided by the Insurance Bureau of Canada. 

The province is still sorting through claims for uninsurable losses but so far has paid out more than $10 million in 1,600 claims from Nova Scotians. 

New Brunswick ushered in a tempestuous start to 2024, with two coastal storm surges in January and a deluge that left parts of Sussex afloat in February. 

Sabine Dietz knows better than most the risks of living near a flood zone. Her century-old farmhouse overlooks the dikes and watercourses of Tantramar, where generations have fought to control the daily ebb and flow of the marshs brackish waters.

Dietz runs ClimAtlantic, a government-funded non-profit that provides climate change information to Atlantic Canadians. She is a strong advocate of the publics awareness, understanding and use of the mapping tool. 

She just wishes lawmakers would use it more aggressively, to keep people from building in flood-prone areas. 

There are no regulations around identifying high-risk areas, said Dietz. That means when it comes to land use planning and zoning and bylaws, there's no requirement unless, you know, a community is proactive and says, OK, we are zoning a certain area as a flood risk area." 

Thats exactly what communities like Shediac, Beaubassin-est and Cap-Pel have done, but their designation only amounts to a warning. The zoning lacks real teeth, Dietz said, which means some developers will continue to build in areas along the southeast New Brunswick coast that are prone to flooding. 

They may raise properties above the expected flood level and build on concrete pads, eschewing easily flooded basements, but Mother Nature, said Dietz, will eventually win. 

Why? Because, she said, people's dreams of waterfront living outweigh their aversion to risk.

I've spoken to two people that have done that. One bought a house close to, well, really in an absolutely high-risk area. And I asked that person, 'So you've seen the maps. What makes you still want to build there, or buy there? And both of them said, It's always been my dream. I know I can be flooded out, but I'm still going to do it.' 

No amount of flood mapping can resist the urge of a dream fulfilled. And in the absence of provincial regulations enforcing flood-risk assessment in real estate, building in flood vulnerable areas shows no signs of slowing. 

Ask Ron Ramsay whether he has any regrets about where he chose to live, and his answer is immediate.

 "Oh, absolutely not, no, not at all. I mean, you can't beat this. So you have what, two or three storms? Half a dozen maybe now, if you get more. But I'm set for it now, as far as I'm concerned."

In an earlier version of this story, Don Fox was misidentified as a geoengineer. He is, in fact, a geoscientist.