Blue Jays must get creative at trade deadline

With Major League Baseball'sJuly 31 non-waiver trade deadline looming, the Blue Jays are stuck between a rock and last place.

At 45-54, lastin their division and 13th in the American League, the Jays should be sellers. Their run differential, worst in the AL at minus-88, indicatesa team with no hope of making the post-season.

Management has acknowledged that reality too, with GM Ross Atkinssaying Monday that "it's a lot more difficult to add to a team like this."

One issue: there's little of value on the roster to be sold.

None of Toronto's pending 2018 free agents are performing well. Marco Estrada has been bad for more than a month, and the always-streaky Francisco Liriano has been bad all season. Jose Bautista is the slowest right-fielder in the league.

The Blue Jays shouldn't buy, and they can't really sell.

With Atkins stating a preference for competing next season, as opposed to a full rebuild, hewill need to get creative with the players on his roster.

2018 free agents

Estrada sports a 5.52 ERA on the season, a number that rises to 9.60 since June 1. The changeup artist had been masterful for the Blue Jays over two years, and even better in six post-season starts. That should be valuable to contenders, but the recency effect is real, and Estrada will likely not return much in a trade.

Liriano was great for the Blue Jays last year after coming over at the trade deadline. The fact that Monday's blah start five innings, two earned runs, two walks, five strikeouts was something of a turning point for the lefty does not portend well for his season. Liriano is not the reliable starter October hopefuls seek.

Bautista provides some power and some on-base skills, and would be useful for any team. After all, he's produced some flippin' huge hits in October before. It's just, a .219 hitter best suited for first base or DH isn't that valuable.

There are seemingly two options for Atkins with this trio: lose them for nothing in the off-season, or get back anything you can now. For a team that's admitted it won't win this year, the latter seems best.

But there's also a third option. Why not offer them one-year extensions? If they accept and revert back to their old form, they're either useful pieces on a good 2018 Blue Jays squad, or valuable trade chips at the deadline. If it turns out their usefulness has passed, the risk is minimal their trade value pretty much can't be any lower than it is now, anyway.

Reliever Joe Smith is also a pending free agent. Playoff teams are always looking for extra bullpen help, and the Milwaukee Brewers have already reportedly shown interest. It's a safe bet that Smith isn't in Toronto next week.

2019 free agents

There is more talent in this class, and thus more difficult decisions to be made.

Justin Smoak is an all-star being paid like a bench scrub. Steve Pearce is pretty much the definition of "professional hitter."J.A. Happ is a steady left-handed starter. And Josh Donaldson could return a king's ransom.

If the Blue Jays move any of these players in the next week, they'll want controllable, major-league ready talent in return. It's why Toronto has rumoured interest in Dee Gordon, a speedy second baseman under contract through 2020.

Toronto is not in the rental market, but they're not punting the next few years either, like Astros and Cubs teams in recent past. That makes trading guys under team control difficult but not dumb.

Pearce should be moved in a heartbeat. On fire since his return from injury, he'sgood depth for contendersbut doesn't move the needle for middling teams, instead just clogging up the depth chart for young players. He comes cheaply next year too.

Smoak's value is at a peak, so the Jays should sell high. They likely won't.

Donaldson's value is at a valley, and moving him would mark a full rebuild. He'll be in Toronto at the end of the year, too.

Happ canbe moved if the price is right.There's no rush to trade him, but some team might pay up for a solid fourth playoff starter.

Beyond

Toronto will likely have a quiet trade deadline. Some moves on the fringes could be on their way, or the front office could get creative like it did by absorbing Liriano's contract last season, along with two prospects.

It makes sense that the team wants to contend next season, given the fanbase it enjoys right now especially compared to the wilderness of 1994-2014. It may not be realistic, but there's no reason not to try.

A full rebuild would require the teammoving young, controllable pieces like Roberto Osuna and Marcus Stroman, who are the type of players they want to acquireanyway.

Baseball is weird, and with a couple prudent moves, Toronto could return to the playoff huntin 2018.

But for right now, the Blue Jays are stuck.