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NBAAnalysis

Raptors must evolve or face extinction

Following four straight playoff flame-outs, the Toronto Raptors are changing their offensive approach to incorporate more three-pointers and more passes. Can the Dinos survive in the NBA's new era?

Toronto team trying to survive in NBA's modern era

For years, DeMar DeRozan has stuck to an old-school offensive approach. With the Toronto Raptors changing their offence to a newer style, can DeRozan adapt? (Mark Blinch/NBAE/Getty Images)

In today's NBA, offence is the bedrock upon whichany title contender is built.

The Toronto Raptors have ranked no worse than sixth in offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) in each of the past three regular seasons. And yet, as they tip off their season Thursday night, no one thinks the Raptors are a title contender probably becausethey've ranked no better than 12thin offensive rating in each of the past three playoffs.

After last season ended with a second-round sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers, team president Masai Ujiri promised a "culture reset." The Raptors got accidentally good after trading Rudy Gay to Sacramentoin December 2013, and after four straight years of playoff disappointment, they're no longer happy just to be there.

Hence the culture reset. Except, Dwane Casey is still the head coach, DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry (fresh off a shiny new$100-million US contract) are still the featured players,and Bruno Caboclo is still tucked away on the bench, far from becoming the Brazilian Kevin Durant.

So what has changed?

Shoot the rock

The Houston Rockets are notorious for launching three-pointers. Last year, a league-high 46.2 per cent of their shots came from deep. In the pre-season, the Rockets raised that number to 59 per cent. The only other team above 50 per cent? That would be the Raptors.

And that would also be a stark contrast to how the Raptorsplayed last season, when they ranked 22ndin the league in three-point attempts.

We all know that the NBA is trendingmore and more beyond the arc with each passing season, and the Golden State Warriors have more than dispelled the myth that teams reliant on the three can't win atitle. The Raptors have finally caught on.

It just may not last. The Raptors have three above-average three-point shooters: Lowry, Serge Ibakaand CJ Miles (For the record, it will be extremely lame if his nickname becomes "kilometres.")Norman Powell, who shot well in the playoffs last year, could be poised for a breakout.

The biggest question will be the mid-range maestroDeRozan. The ultimate "No! No! No! Yes!"player because of his ability to sinkquestionable shots, DeRozanhas been known to pass on an open three-pointer to take a contested two. No doubt he makes it work, but still, taking and making that initial long-range shot would not only makeDeRozan a bigger threat, but it would opendriving lanes for other players, too.

Jonas Valanciunas, for one, would benefit from the extra space inside, considering players are literally waving off his three-point attempts.

Share the rock

The DeRozan-Valanciunas pairing has been an awkward one. Both players like to operate in the post and mid-range, and pick-and-rollsinvolving the twooften end up staying in DeRozan's hands. When Valanciunasdoes get fed, he usually eats up the possession with a shot his career high is three assists in a game, and he's never averaged more than 0.7 per game in a single season.

The Raptors ranked dead last overall in assists last season. Lowryisn't as allergic to passing as DeRozan and Valanciunas, but he does like to handle the ball, and having that trio on the court with another shoot-first player in Ibakagreatly limits ball movement.

Which is why, beyond shooting, the Raptors prioritized an increase in assists in their offensive overhaul. One of the major reasons for thelack of offencein the playoffs was the abundance of isolation plays drawn up for DeRozanand Lowry. More passing introduces more unpredictability it's much harder to game plan against that.

Further down the rotation, the Raptors' bench offers more hope for additional passing. Backup point guard Delon Wright can use his 6-6 frame to make passesover his defender, and centre Lucas Nogueira is the team's best-passing big man.

Pound the rock

That bench also offers plenty of new faces. Gone are Patrick Patterson, PJ Tucker, Cory Joseph and DeMarre Carroll. In their stead, the Raptors will feature some of the young talent they've stacked up since Ujiri's reign began.

First-rounder JakobPoeltlremains the backup centre, while fellow top pick Wright takes over for Joseph. Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Fred VanVleet will try to plugthe remaining holes. The veteran Miles may come off the bench to play at either forward spot too.

Having so many new players in the rotation could introduce a chemistry problem to begin the season, but may also help the Raptors more easily transition their offence to a more progressive style.

Ever since he took over, Caseyhas preached "pounding the rock,"a philosophy meant to encourage his players to work hard. He even had an actual rock placed outside the locker room.

In basketball terms, "pound the rock"also refers to an old-school offensive style, where the team puts the ball in the hands of a star player like Kobe Bryant or ShaquilleO'Neal, and the rest of the teamclears out to leave that player one-on-one. Since teams have discovered that three points is more than two, and that passing is harder to defend than dribbling, "pound the rock"as a primary form of offence has gone extinct.

This summer, the Raptors, dinosaurs of the NBA, realized they had a choice: adapt or die.

They chose to adapt, and now they must sustain. Will it make a difference when the games matter?