Early on in the coronavirus pandemic , many predicted a baby boom would result, thanks to all the idle hours couples were forced to spend at home.

So far, though, the research suggests the opposite may be true: Were in the early days of a baby bust.

According to reporting by the NBCLX news outlet, several states and a few hospital systems that keep track of births saw significant drops in birth rates in December, compared with the same month in 2019. This past Decembers birth rates were down 8% in Florida, 5% in Arizona and 7% in Ohio compared with the previous year. (Most states and hospitals contacted either couldnt provide information or hadnt shared their December numbers yet.)

NBCLX looked at December birth rates because most stay-at-home orders were instituted in March. The majority of babies conceived in mid-March would be born in late December.

With a few exceptions, hospital systems contacted by the news site reported similar declines. OhioHealth, which delivers babies at 10 hospitals across the state, saw an 11% drop in births over the second half of 2020, compared to the second half of 2019. JPSHealth Network in Texas reported a 13% drop in births from December 2020, compared with December 2019.

Significant declines in birth rates come as no surprise to researchers though they stress that the data to fully gauge the number of lowered birth rates wont be available for a few months.

The economic fallout, persistent health concerns, uncertainty about the safety and availability of medical care and the closure of schools all combine to make this a very unappealing time for couples to start or expand their family, said Emily Smith-Greenaway , an associate professor of sociology and spatial sciences at the University of Southern California.

Will we see a baby boom once the pandemic abates? With fewer singles dating because of lockdowns and the already historically low rates in marriage, researchers have their doubts.

We certainly anticipate there to be a rebound, but were not so sure about an overshoot a boom that helps to offset the bust, Smith-Greenaway said. The longer this economic and public health crisis persists, the more likely these births arent just delayed, but will be averted entirely.

Melissa Kearney, an economics professor at the University of Maryland, and Phillip Levine, an economics professor at Wellesley University in Massachusetts, published a report over the summer predicting the pandemic could result in half a million fewer births in 2021.

The pair updated their estimate in December, projecting the number may be closer to 300,000, but they remain convinced the virus will lead to a sizable reduction in children born in 2021.

As soon as the stories started coming out last spring about a potential baby boom, Phil and I discussed how those predictions were surely wrong, and how what we should expect to see instead was a sizable baby bust, Kearney told HuffPost.

According to Kearney and Levine, the baby boom speculation is rooted in a long-standing myth that birth rates spike after crises or events that force the population to stay home (say, a blizzard or a major electricity blackout.)

But the researchers say the theory doesnt tend to hold up to statistical examination and the COVID-19 crisis is obviously far more disruptive and longer-lasting than those two examples.

It makes more sense to draw parallels to the 1918 influenza pandemic, which led to a large decline in birth rates .

Were not surprised to see a decline in births this time around, Kearney said. Its what economic reasoning, data, and evidence would have predicted.

Googling habits support these estimates. Searches for pregnancy-related terms like ultrasound ClearBlue pregnancy test and morning sickness all fell in 2020, according to one study .

Heres why the so-called baby bust matters.

All of this could spell trouble down the line. Birth rates were sinking to a record low , even before the COVID-19 crisis. As Levine recently told Insider , fewer workers in the labor force could have a dire impact on our Social Security system, since its dependent and financed through tax contributions of new employees.

At this point, 300,000 fewer births in one year, one time, isnt really that big of a deal for the broader economy and society as a whole, Levine said. But you start finding yourself down close to a million births a year, for several years, so those trends continue, and thats going to have important implications for the country going forward.