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JD Vance will introduce himself to the American public in a speech at the Republican National Convention Wednesday night.

Dont be surprised if he makes a good impression.

Vance has a good story about himself to tell, and he can tell it eloquently, as readers of his memoir, Hillbilly Elegy , know. And thats to say nothing of those beautiful blue eyes that Donald Trump reportedly found so captivating when he was choosing Vance to be his running mate.

Whether Vance can charm more Americans into voting for the Trump ticket in November is another matter.

Many Republican strategists hope that Vance, the Ohio senator known for his Trumpy brand of conservatism , can help rally voters in the industrial Midwest. Its no coincidence that the campaign has scheduled his first joint appearance with Trump to take place on Saturday in Michigan, where Vances history of bashing free trade and speaking up for striking auto workers last fall will find friendly audiences.

But the available evidence suggests that Vance mainly appeals to constituencies that Trump already commands, like white working-class men. Even when Vance was winning his Senate seat back in 2022, he lost among women voters, according to exit polling , performing 10 points worse than both his Democratic opponent and the Republican governor seeking reelection on the same ballot.

Women in Ohio may have been reacting to Vances opposition to abortion rights or to his suggestion at a 2021 event that they should be more willing to stay in abusive marriages . Or maybe it was the time Vance told Tucker Carlson (then still on Fox News) that the country was being run by childless cat ladies .