Sen. Kyrsten Sinemas fundraising for her Arizona reelection campaign slowed to its lowest level in years in the final three months of 2023, a sign the independent candidate may not be preparing to meet a potentially insurmountable deadline to gather tens of thousands of signatures.

Sinema, a Democrat until 2022, raised just $595,000 in the last three months of 2023, according to a freshly filed report with the Federal Election Commission. Its the lowest total shes raised since the last quarter of 2020 and less than half of what she raised each quarter of 2021, when she played a starring role in shrinking the legislative ambitions of President Joe Biden.

The report also revealed Sinema had spent no money on signature-gathering through the end of 2023. To qualify for the ballot as an independent, she needs to get 42,303 valid signatures by April 8, according to Arizonas secretary of state office a task Arizona Democrats think only gets harder by the day.

If she is running, Im struggling to see why she isnt in yet, said Jon Sutton, who worked as the field director for the Arizona Democratic Party when Sinema ran for Senate in 2018. Shes just making this harder and more expensive for herself, spending money she doesnt really have.

It adds up to an emerging consensus across both political parties: A typical politician would not run for reelection. Theres also an acknowledgment, however, that Sinema who evolved from a Green Party candidate to a Wall Street-friendly centrist is far from a typical politician.

If Sinema does not run, it would remove a major political headache for Democrats heading into the 2024 Senate elections. National Democrats remain torn between Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), who has the clear backing of in-state Democrats, and Sinema, who officially left the party in December 2022 but effectively caucuses with Democrats in the Senate and provides key votes for judicial nominees and other party priorities.

If she does qualify for the ballot, Sinema would be in a three-way race with Gallego and former newscaster Kari Lake, a Republican. Polls have shown a tight race between Gallego and Lake, with Sinema trailing well behind. Democrats need to win the seat to have any hope of retaining control of the Senate after the 2024 elections.