MADRID Spain is once again holding elections on November 10 for the fourth time in four years, a record across all of Europe . Financial indicators are showing the first signs of weakness , and the country-wide institutional crisis taking hold appears to be the worst since democracy was established in 1978.

Spain isnt exactly living its best life right now. And despite this, everyones attention politicians, business, the media is being drawn to just one place: Catalonia. Everything, or almost everything, that has happened in Spanish politics in recent years hangs on this autonomous region .

And no, there isnt another referendum to see if the Catalans want to leave or remain with Spain. Over the short term, that piece of history isnt set to repeat. The concerns, the unrest, and uncertainty all stem from one judicial ruling: the rebellion and sedition trial against a dozen Catalan politicians and activists behind Catalonias Oct. 1, 2017, independence referendum.

On that day, images of Spain were broadcast worldwide that damaged the countrys credibility as a democratic system : hundreds of police officers charging against citizens who were trying to vote freely. The big problem is that this referendum was illegal.

The majority of the parties to the right of the political spectrum have come to label what happened on 1-O as a coup detat. For the Catalan independence movement, it was entirely the opposite, an attack against freedom and proof that real democracy does not exist in Spain.

Spanish politics has been torn between these two extremes ever since. Catalonia affects everything. And the upcoming general elections on November 10 will be settled based on the Supreme Court ruling . No date for the decision has yet been determined, but it is expected sometime mid-October. There is no doubt about it Catalonia will once again be the subject of global debate.

Of most concern isnt just the outcome of the ruling, but instead, what will happen the very minute after the sentences have been announced. Because there will be sentences. Very few doubt the fact that the 12 leaders of the independence movement accused will be sentenced to up to two decades in prison.

And these arent just any old politicians. The defendants are the Catalan vice president, and among others, ministers in charge of foreign and domestic affairs, labor, business, justice, and government matters, as well as the President of the Catalan parliament. Then President, Carles Puigdemont, has been fleeing justice since 2017 and is living in a luxurious mansion in Waterloo, Belgium.

Yet the sentences imposed will without question only serve to revitalize the sentiments behind the independence movement in Catalonia. Huge protests and even riots are expected in the streets. There are reasons to expect the worst . In mid-September, nine members of the separatist protest group the Committees to Defend the Republic (CDR) were detained for encouraging the independence movement to take a more violent stance.