Long ago, in Kentucky, I, a boy, stood... Robert Penn Warren, Tell Me A Story

It is 6:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. In 24 hours, the first polls close on the 2016 American national elections. So, over here at Wildcatters Stables, weve decided to go in search of what John Adams called that good old humor , and get back to the basics of data, expert guesses, and outcomes for tomorrow night. To whomever wins the presidency, we say congratulations. For folks who like to handicap, well, being from horse country, weve decided that everyone could use a tip sheet to get through tomorrow.

It has been a trying and demanding year for many people. The parties and the candidates have been each at the others throats. Indeed, the anger and angst must have gone aerosol, especially once the prognosticators start getting into it -- Nate Silver will definitely need a vacation come Wednesday.

So, below, weve pulled together all the low-hanging fruit indicators of the critical states in tomorrows presidential sweepstakes race. We then mixed those data and guesses with our own peculiar judgment to fuel the Little Smart Pill Machine as it picks tomorrows winners and losers.

Remember, this is an exhibition, not a competition. Please, no wagering.

Never mind. Bet. Bet like your life depended on it.

In order to set this forecast, were starting with the following assumptions. First, as indicated by the map below, we start Trump at 197 electoral votes and Clinton at 224 electoral votes. These are votes considered in the bag, not in play. Please note, weve taken Georgia (16) and Arizona (11) off the table for Clinton, even though we think there is reason to think Democrats might still come to play in those states. We also assume that Maine and Nebraska will not split their votes, or, at worst, they will offset if they do split. So, we are treating them as whole.

This leaves seven states: Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Florida (29), New Hampshire (4), Nevada (6), North Carolina (15), and Colorado (9).