El Nio forecasts warm winter for West Coast

To buy, or not to buy a ski pass on the South Coast this winter?

That is the question that cannot be answered with certainty as the world heads into uncharted territory over the next few months.

A developingEl Nio whichcouldbe the strongest since at least the1950s continues to warm the waters ofthe equatorial Pacific.

This ischanging weather patterns around the world as huge amounts of heat are released from the ocean into the atmosphere.

At the same time, the so-called Blobremains in place off the coast of B.C.This rarecombination of events hasnever been observed before by climatologists which is whythe West Coast of North America is headed intouncharted territory.

What climatologists do knowis that this set-up islikelyto warm temperaturesacross most of Canada this winter, asmildocean air flows from west to east across the country.

Environment Canada, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationand AccuWeather, a private weather agency, are all agreeing withthat outlook.

It's snow uncertain

But what does that mean forhow much snow the West Coast can expect?

Precipitation has always been a tricky element to nail down, particularlymonths in advance. There are just so many factors that come into play when making along-range precipitation forecast.

In past El Nio events, the warmer waters off the coast of South Americaoften end up splitting the jet stream into a northern and southern stream during the winter months.

The southern branch is what Californiansare hoping will bring much-needed relief to their epic drought in exchange though for possible life-threatening floods and landslides.

The northern branch is what B.C. will be watching closely.

A weak El Nio in 2010 ended up keeping the jet stream well to the north of the South Coast. That led to well-below seasonal snowpacks for the local mountains and famously trucking in snow for the 2010 Olympics.

An El Nio event between1996 to1997 though led to a series of brutal winter storms that blasted Vancouver Island, the Lower Mainland, and the Fraser Valley with more than100 centimetresof snow at sea level. During this season the jet stream was aimed almost directly at the South Coast, before turningnorth across the Prairies.

So far this El Nio has already surpassed 1997 in terms of heat and size. Meteorologists andclimatologists will be watching what thejet stream does in the next couple of months very closelyright alongside the skiers and snowboarders.

So stay tuned!

California flooding

9 years ago

Duration 2:26

How El Nino could be playing out