Fraser Institute warns Alberta debt could be almost double government forecast

The Alberta government is downplaying how much debt could pile up by the end of this decade, a Fraser Institute study says.

Alberta's debt is expected to reach $19.8 billion by 2020, according to government forecasts, but the Fraser Institute says it could hit $36 billion if spending is not reined in.

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It says the debt could grow to $26.8 billion by 2020 if government spending increases in line with population growth and inflation (3.9 per cent annually). Or it could balloon to $31.1billion if the government hikes spending at the rate the economy is expected to grow (4.7 per cent).

Given that the financeminister recently said the deficit for 2016/17 could be $5 billion greater than projected in the budget, the paper considers the impact of a one-time revenue loss of $5 billion, taking the debt to more than $36 billion.

"Unfortunately, successive Alberta governments spent as though boom times would never end and the current government has continued the trend towards higher program spending," the right-wing think tank said in a statement on Thursday.

Net debt position

Now, for the first time in 17 years, the province's debt exceeds its financial assets a dramatic change from 2008 when Alberta had no net debt and was sitting on $35 billion in financial assets, the study notes.

The institute is urging the NDP government to rein in spending, as low oil prices take a bite out of revenues.

"With the provincial budget only two weeks away, the government's spending choices will play an important role in determining how much debt is laid on the backs of working Albertans and their families," said Ben Eisen, the Fraser Institute's associate director of provincial prosperity studies.

Oil-producing provinces like Alberta have been hit particularly hard by a sharpdrop in prices that are more than 60 per cent lower than their peak in mid-2014.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada said it would likely take more than two years for the country's economy to fully adjust to the commodity price shock.