'Growth is gone': Demographic squeeze threatens medicare

New Brunswickersare on the way to becoming second-class citizens in the Canadian federation and provincialpoliticians must act quickly to take advantage of economic opportunities, such asnatural resources, or risk losing programs like medicare, warns a public policy analyst.

Richard Saillant, director of the Donald J. Savoie Institute at the University of Moncton,blames what he calls "the great demographic imbalance" in his new book, A Tale of Two Countries.

About 16 per cent of Canadians are currently seniorsand within 25 years, that number will jump to 24 per cent,said Saillant. In New Brunswick, however, it will be "well above" 30 per cent.

Growthin New Brunswickwill be "slower" than the rest of Canada and pressures on the health-care system will be greater, he said.

"I'm essentially saying in 10 15 years, medicare as we know it will not be sustainable in New Brunswick, based on our own means," said Saillant.

Gallant 'delaying conversations'

"If we want help from our more prosperous provinces, younger provinces, we have to demonstrate that we've done everything we could to help ourselves first" and "show that we're good fiscal stewards."

That means transforming public spending, said Saillant, who warned in hisprevious book,Over theCliff?, released two years ago during the provincial election,thatNew Brunswick wasbarrellingtoward bankruptcy.

"When [Premier Brian] Gallant is saying that we're going to protect health careand education, what we're doing is essentially fixing the status quo and delaying conversations to after the next election," Saillantsaid on Friday.

Immigration will help, but the province needs to accept "growth is gone," he said.

"We need to have a conversation about how best to take advantage of our limited economic opportunities," such as shale gas and the proposed Energy East oil pipeline.

"We need to start having that conversation now."