Southwest Nova Scotia droughts could increase with climate change

Southwest Nova Scotia could face more droughts and a big change in the tree population if predicted climate changes occur, a professor at the University of New Brunswick said Monday.

Charles Bourque, professor of hydrology and meteorology, said his research showed southwest Nova Scotia was a hotspot for droughts.

"Work that I did in 2008 based on Environment Canada weather data generated by models indicated that southwest Nova Scotia would probably experience a major increase in mean temperature," he told CBC's Maritime Noon.

Balsam firs could retreat by 2100

If the forecast models prove correct, the area would see a 24 per cent rise in mean temperature from today to 2040. He said the drought this year "fits the trends."

"I wasn't surprised," he said. "When you look at climate, it has a lot of variability. Even though it's indicated to be happening now, it's not necessarily going to be the long-term trend. But certainly with the variability increasing, there's a high likelihood of that happening again."

If rising temperatures combine with less rain, it could spell the end of the balsam fir tree in the area by the year 2100. The trees thrive in cool conditions with a "reasonable" amount of water in the soil.

"Given the conditions that we've just described, it's possible in the future that balsam fir may disappear," Bourque said, "especially if you look at it in terms of current conditions to 2100, based on the models that we have."

Global issue with local impact

He thinks the tree could linger in higher, cooler areas, like the Cape Breton highlands, should the conditions change as the model forecasts. If that happens, southwest Nova Scotia would likely see an increase in red maple trees because they do well in warmer temperatures.

Bourque said the warming trend is a global issue.

"A lot of the changes that we see are at a much larger scale than just simply Nova Scotia or New Brunswick. Once they're in place, it's really difficult to do something about it. It's like trying to stop a rolling stone from falling down a hill," he said.

Other researchers have pointed out that droughts occur so rarely in Nova Scotia that people were unprepared.

• Nova Scotia drought catches people unprepared
• How to cope with the drought in southwestern Nova Scotia