'Cuts versus Care': Could this be Kathleen Wynne's narrow path to victory?

For first-time voter Vincent Hanaurt, it's the promise to raise the minimum wage to $15. For Therese Simbaqwira,a new Canadian from Burundi, it'sconcern about equality for women in the workplace. And for Margaret Singleton, it's all about leadership.

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"She's energetic; she works hard," saidSingleton, as she stood with a handful of Liberal sign-waving supporters outside the venue forLiberal Leader Kathleen Wynne'sfirst official campaign rally in Ottawa-Vanier, amongthe safest Liberal ridings in the province. "People don't really look at what she's done. I think there's a lot of misinformation out there."

These supportersare the dream voters for the Liberals, and if the party hasany chance at re-election, it's going to haveto hang onto a lot more of them onJune 7.

Run on record of 'care'

To say that Kathleen Wynne is facing anuphill battleis an understatement. Not only are they trailing well behind Doug Ford, the Progressive Conservativeleader and unequivocal front runner, Wynne's Liberals are coming in third in some recent polls. Her likeability ratings are abysmal. In other surveys, asmany as 80 per cent of the Ontarianssay they want a change after 15 years of Liberal rule.

If there is a path to victory for Wynne and that's a pretty big if it's a two-pronged approach: remind voters of all the stuff the Liberals say they've done for them, and will continue to do if they're re-elected, while trying to paint Ford as an unacceptable option for middle-of-the-road voters.

And on the first day of the campaign, Wynnewas already working both sides of that strategy.

During both a sit-down interview with CBC, and laterat the rally, Wynnesaid she still believes "that government exists to do the things for people they can't do for themselves."

Havingregretted her policy-centric answer to adebate question from Ford, who asked her how she lost her way as a politician an exchange Wynnesaid kept her awake Monday night the Liberal leaderinvoked her grandparents' experience helping the poor, with her First World War veterangrandfather accepting baked goodsas payment for medical services and her grandmother setting up language lessons for Italian immigrants in Sault Ste. Marie.

Then she seguedfrom that warm family anecdoteto the reason she got into politics: Mike Harris, the 1990sPC premier who oversaw cuts to social services, including health care and education.

"We're at that point again," Wynnesaid. "Doug Ford wants to undermine and cut out public services, our health care, our education."

Wynne on Hydro One sell-off

7 years ago

Duration 1:18

Liberal leader says Hydro One ownership change may have caught voters off guard.

Connect with as many voters as possible

"Wynne needs to give people a real reason tovote for them and to worry people about the other side," said Phil Dewan, a strategist with public affairs firmCounselwho previously worked on former Liberal premiers' campaigns.

"Kathleen has to be able to show who she is.She'sgood at talking to people and a good campaigner."

So expect to see her out a lot. Media interviews, the barbecue circuit, as many meet-and-greets as 28 days will allow.

Members of her team, speaking on background, say despite surveys that show she is least-liked among the three major leaders, voters find her personable in one-on-one exchanges. Even if you don't agree with her, she's good at explaining policies and her reasoning behind unpopular decisions, such as partially privatizing Hydro One orraising the debt level to pay for infrastructure.

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And while she defends giving long answers sometimes "You can say simple things to complex questions, but it doesn't mean that they are right," she said she's going to try to battle Ford's memorable slogans, such as "Six Million Dollar Man" in reference to the pay package of Hydro One's CEO, with her own slightly less pop-cultureyone: "Cuts versus care."

Working to discredit Ford

While Wynneis reminding voters that the Liberals are promising public daycare for toddlers and $750 to each Ontariosenior who wants to stay in his or herhome, she's also going to be driving home the message that Ford can't cut fourper cent of the budget, cut taxes, spend another $5 billion on transit for the Toronto area and not lay off workers or reduce services.

The PCs have said they will release a fully costed platform during the campaign.

Behind the scenes, the Liberals are doingeverything they can to discredit Ford and his candidates.

They releasedtweets from prominent candidate TanyaGranicAllen that seemed homophobic and anti-Muslim, which led to her being tossed from the Mississauga Centre race, prompting outrage fromsome ofthe PCs' social conservative base.

Kathleen Wynne on campaign slogans

7 years ago

Duration 0:24

Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne on giving long answers in the age of the soundbite.

Liberals also promoted a videothat appears to show Ford making a deal with developers to build on the Greenbelt, a deal Ford was forced to abandon amid the following day's blowback. And justWednesday, Ottawa-area Liberal candidates accusedKanata-Carletoncandidate Merrilee Fullerton, a possible healthminister in a future PC government, of being in favour of two-tier health care.

And, like any other campaign, the Liberals are hoping the PC leader will make a major blunder.

Ford is considered to be unpredictable. As a Toronto city councillor and right-hand man to his brother, the late Toronto mayor Rob Ford, he was known foroften verbally shooting himself in the foot.So, the odds of a major gaffe mightbe better than usual. The Wynne team is hoping that the more Ontarianssee of Ford, the less they will trust him.

Battling on the right, and the left

So far, though, Ford's popularity is holding and his promise to change the way that math is taught to elementary school children will likely be welcome news to any parent who's ever sent their kid to Kumon.

And if fightingFord on the right isn't enough of a challenge, Wynnealso has to contend with the rising NDP on the left.

Wynnesuggested Wednesday that the NDPsees "business as a barrier" the New Democrats want to raise corporate taxes to pay for much oftheir platform while the Liberals "see business as an integral part of a caring society."

And perhaps recognizing Horwath'sfolksy appeal, Wynnehas already borrowed herzinger from Monday's debate, calling on Ford "to have the guts" to tell people what cuts he'll make if elected premier.

"Is there a chance? There's always a chance," said Dewan, the public affairs strategist, aboutthe possibility of Wynne coming from behind.

"You never know what's going to happen in a campaign. And anyone who claims they do know what will happen isfull of it."