Charlottetown Airport looks to past with hopes for the future

With passenger traffic down 95 per cent in April over last year, Charlottetown Airport is looking at past economic shocks to try and figure out when passenger traffic might return.

It's a difficult task, because the airline industry has never been shut down worldwide by any event the way it has been by the COVID-19 pandemic. The events of the last 20 years can only provide a rough guide.

"If you look at all those events 9/11, SARS, the recession I think COVID-19 is going to be much deeper and further reaching in terms of the impact on the economy and various sectors than any of those events, maybe even those events combined," said airport CEO Doug Newson.

Last week, the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council released an analysis of travellers at all Canadian airports that showed domestic travel took as long as 2.5 years to recover from previous shocks, and international travel up to six years.

A look at a similar chart for Charlottetown Airport shows a typical impact that is shorter and not as deep.

Some events, such as SARSin 2003, seemed to have no impact at all. Traffic following the recession returned to earlier levels in two years. Forecasting is fraught, however, with no knowledge yetof when the recovery might begin.

Most analysts, Newson said, are estimating three to four years for recovery.

That recovery will be dependent on two things. One will be the airlines' efforts to balance how quickly they bring flights back online with customer demand. In reporting its first quarter results Monday, Air Canada said it was going to be a smaller airline for the next few years.

More important, of course, will be the demand for travel. Newson said the industry will have a part to play in inspiring the confidence of people to travel again.

"There will certainly be a role for airports and airlines, as well as policy makers, to make sure that we've got the right policies and procedures in place so that there is public confidence in terms of people wanting to get on an airplane, go through an airport, but also travel in general," he said.

This is new ground for Charlottetown Airport, which over the last two decades has been defined more by good news than bad, such as the addition of WestJet in 2005 and the string of record tourism years since 2014.

Newson said that strong foundation should serve the airport well.

"We believe that once things do start to rebound that P.E.I. will be an attractive destination and a safe place, and airlines will want to add capacity," he said.

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