What the carbon pricing future looks like in Doug Ford's Ontario

The battle over a carbon tax pitting Ontario against the federal Liberal government is set to heat up, despite Premier Doug Ford's smiling photo op with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Thursday.

Ford and Trudeau met for the first time, with the prime minister travelling to Queen'sPark just six days after the new Progressive Conservative government took power.

• Doug Ford is officially ending Ontario's cap-and-trade plan, but what's next?
• Legal opinion finds Supreme Court would likely uphold federally imposed carbon tax

The first act of the Ford government was a direct snub to Trudeau's agenda on climate change: cancelling Ontario's cap and trade system for reducing carbon emissions.

But for the next move, Trudeau wields a hammer: unless Ford presents his own carbon pricing plan to Ottawa by Sept. 1, the federal government will impose its $20/tonne carbon tax effective Jan. 1.

"If provinces do not wish to be part of the national plan, the federal government will move forward on bringing in a carbon price backstop," Trudeautold reporters Thursday after his meeting with Ford. "The clear mandate that I got elected on was to bring in a national plan to fight climate change. That's exactly what I'm going to do."

Trudeau said the money Ottawa collects from carbon pricingin the province will be returneddirectly toOntarians.

Ford did not speak to reporters after the meeting. In a statement, spokesman SimonJefferiessaid Ford and the PCs"will fight any efforts by the federal government to impose a carbon tax on the people of Ontario in court."

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It is far from certain that the province would win such a court battle.

"Every legal analysis I've seen thus far says the federal government hasthe authority to impose a carbon price, if the province doesn't have one," Green Party of Ontario leader MikeSchreinersaid Thursday.

"I think it is a fruitless exercise for the premier to try to engage in a legal battle with the federal government. It would be a waste of money and a waste of time,"saidSchreinerin an interview withCBCNews. "I don't think anybody voted for the new premier to waste money on a court battle that we're going to lose."

The legal challengewould cost taxpayers $30 million, the PCs said during the election campaign.

The Manitoba government, which initially opposed the federal climate plan, sought an independent legal opinion that concludedthe Supreme Court would likely side with Ottawa on the issue.

"The experts have all said kind of unanimously that the federal government has clearjurisdictionto do this in any province," said Keith Brooks, programs director of the Toronto-based group Environmental Defence.

• Ford vows his first act as premierwill be to scrap cap and trade

"We have every expectation to believe there'sgoingto be a carbon price in Ontario come January 1st, 2019," said Brooks in an interview Thursday withCBCNews.

At this stage, it clearly looks like the carbon price will be Ottawa's version. Schreineris trying to urge Ford to adopt what he calls a "carbon fee and dividend" system: charge polluters to emitgreenhouse gases, and refund all of the proceeds to Ontario taxpayers.

"He can fulfil his campaign pledgeto create jobs, boost our economy, and put money in people's pockets and tackle climate change at the same time," saidSchreiner.

Ford has framed the carbon-pricing debate as a pocketbook issue, setting aside the question of how to reduce Ontario's carbon emissions. The PCs have not indicated whether they will stick to the province's greenhouse gas reduction targets, which are currently enshrined in law.

• Green Party leader calls Ford's carbon plans 'reckless'

"Ithink it'sreasonablethat the premier is taking some time to figure out what he wantsto do on climate change," said Brooks. "The good news is that he says he believes in climate change." However, without cap and trade or a carbon tax, Brookssaid it isn't clear how Ford would reach the province's emissions targets.

Ford's move to end cap and trademeans Ontario is "going backwards on reducing carbon pollution," saidSchreiner. "Getting rid of our existing programs without having an alternative plan in place is gambling with our children's future and I think it's irresponsible."