Thailand coup: There's 'an ongoing reset button'

The roots of thelatest political crisis in Thailandto spark yet anotherbloodless coup could be the anticipation of a royal succession in thecountry, whichcontinues tostrugglein the transition to a functioning democracy.

"Thailand sort of goes into a cycle of they have a coup, they put in an interim government, they have an election, those guys start being disliked, protesters take to the street, thenit gets violent, they have a coup," said Murray Hiebert, deputy director for Southeast Asiastudies at the Center for Strategic andInternational Studies.

"They have an ongoing reset button."

This latest coup,the12thsince the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932,was the culmination of the battle between the Red Shirts (rural residents and supporters of former prime ministerThaksinShinawatra) and the anti-government middle class Yellow Shirts, supporters ofprotest leaderSuthepThaugsuban.

• Thailand's army takes control of government, announces nationwide curfew
• Thailand general assumes role as crisis mediator under martial law

"What we have now is an existential battle between the elites in Bangkok, who are educated, middle class, against the rural guys who arestarting to make more money andbecomingmiddleclassand wantto have a say in how the country is run," Hiebert said.

"So what the danger is now is that the Red Shirts think their elected governmenthas been taken out.So they'reclearlygoing to feel that theyve been disenfranchised."

But much of thisjockeying for power may have more to do with the health of the ailingKingBhumibolAdulyadej.

'Both sides want to be in the saddle'

"What'sunderlying it issort of a competition for the future of Thailand and who is in charge when the royalsuccessionhappens," said Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Both sides want to be in the saddle and have the institutional clout whenthe transition happens,"Hiebertadded.

The country has been suffering through apoliticalpower strugglesince 2006, when billionaire former prime ministerThaksinShinawatrawas toppled by a military coup. Shinawatra, who was forced intoexile after theSupreme Court in 2008 sentenced him to two years in prison for corruption, still maintains wide support, particularly among the rural majority.

His sisterYingluckShinawatrabecame prime minister in 2011 and hadled acaretaker government untilDecember when she dissolved parliament following weeks of violent and sometimes deadly anti-government demonstrations. She has also been accused of corruption. Earlier this month,the country's Constitutional Court dismissed her from office, accusing her of abuse of power.

"This coup is the attempt to put an end to the second round ofShinawatras being in power," said Paul Chambers, director of research at theInstituteof South East Asian Affairs inChiangMai, Thailand

"This coup, you could say,indicatesthat the first coup was botched, becauseThaksin'sparty still was able to come back," Chambersaid. "And so this coup indicates, here we go again. It's Groundhog Day.Djvu. Eight years later, theres nothing new under the sun in Thailand. Its the same game."

And it was in this political chaosthatarmy chief Gen.PrayuthChan-ochaannounced he was taking power andsuspending the constitution.

The military hasnevercome under full control of the civiliangovernmentin Thailand,"said AimSinpeng, a scholar at the University of British Columbia'sLiuInstitute of Global Issues.

"The military remains one of the most important institutions in the governing of thecountry. Some powerfulsectionsof Thailandsee the military as the institution of conflict resolution."

'A trending toward democracy country'

Hiebert compared the military's actions to a father who is constantly intervening when two brothers are fighting.

"At some point they have to figure out the father might not be around all the time. Thats what Thailand needs,"Hiebertsaid. "It's basically a trending-toward-democracy country. They have democracy and then it ends and starts again."

The move by themilitary, which, while trying to appear neutralis clearly on the side of the Yellow Shirts, could be a signal toThaksin. He has been accused of disrespecting the monarchand trying to gain influence with Crown PrinceMahaVajiralongkorn, theheir to the throne

Any military action would most likely have had to have been approved by the privy council the advisory group to the king. And the privy council doesn't act without the green light fromthe palace.

"We have the monarchy and the militaryin this asymmetricalalliance," Chambers said.

Chambers said the next steps will be theappointment of an arch-royalist government and then a constituent assembly to create a new constitution.

Kurlantzicksaid they will try to reduce the power of the Shinawatra family,try to preserve the power of the oligarchy, andthen, in the far future, have an election.

"People are still going to vote for a Shinawatra-type party, so I don't know what they're going to do then," he said.