Ukrainian drone tactics make their way to Kursk region, Russian military bloggers suggest
Drones have become increasingly critical tools of war for both sides
Kyiv hassaid little about its rapid entry into Russia's Kursk region, only confirming involvement on Saturday.
It seemingly caught Moscow by surprise:In just days, Ukrainian forces have gained control of what army chief Oleksandr Syrskyihas claimed to total 1,000 square kilometres of Russian soil,as of Monday.
How did it happen? While Kyiv has not elaborated, across the border in Russia, military commentators have been rumbling that Ukrainian forcesskilfullyused drones and jammers to limit Russia's defencesand breakinto Kursk.
Some outside observers say this view seems to make sense, while cautioning that those same commentators may only be able to see a slice of the wider picture.
"It does seem plausible," said Samuel Bendett, an adviser with the Russia Studies program at CNA, a research and analysis organization in Washington, D.C.
Soaring drone use
Droneshave become increasingly critical to both Russia and Ukraine across nearly 30 months of all-outwar in Ukraine. Theyareused everywhere from the trenches of the front line,to the skies above interior areasof the twocountries.
Ukraine, which has created a drone warfare-focused branch of itsmilitary,has used drones to destroy Russian tanks, hitwarplanes andother military targets, in addition to using longer-range drone modelsto strikeoil and gasfacilities far beyond the border.
And it's likewisefelt the sting of Russian drones that have killed Ukrainian soldiers and civilians alike, and have damaged infrastructure includingpower plants.
For Ukraine, relying on technologies likedrones has beena way for it topunch above its weight in its fight with Russia.
"We have everything to win the war against the Russian Federation. Everything to replace a person in the trench, at sea, in the air and underwater," said Ivan Havryliuk, a deputy defence minister, in remarks reported by ABC News earlier this year.
Along the front line, troops from both sides are constrained by the hovering threat of the drones above.Small, first-person view (FPV) drones are routinely used to hunt individual soldiers.
Yet these same obstacles did not stop Ukraine from advancing into Kursk, raisingthe question of how.
A handful of published reports some citing the observations of Russian war bloggerssuggests that Ukraine used drones and signal-jamming devices todown Russian surveillance capabilities and then attack the ground ahead, as Ukraine's owntroops made their advance.
Bendett said it's not a surprise that Ukraine would be using such approaches. He, along with others, saw other factors beyond drones asbeing key to Kyiv's early success in Kursk, such as operational secrecy and the element of surprise. However, he said, the technology is something that Ukrainehas been developing, testingand ultimately competing with Russia on.
"We know Ukraine are ahead of Russia, when it comes to developing [these] tactics and techniques," he said.
Journalist David Axe, who has been covering the conflict,sees Ukraine putting a new spin on an old method in Kursk.
"It's a creeping barrage of jammers and drones,"Axewrote in his newsletter Trench Art.
That's not to say Russia has not been fighting back.A report fromThe Economist quotes Ukrainian soldiers describing "a demonic buzz" in the skies above Kursk, as both Russian planes and dronessoared above them.
But drones remained part of Ukraine's Kursk offensive more than a week into its existence, with Russia claimingon Wednesday to haveshot down 117 drones during the overnight period.
Knowing when and where to strike
Oleksiy Goncharenko, a Ukrainian lawmaker, said that some details have been leaking to the media since theKursk offensive got underway last week.
While not privy to operational details himself, Goncharenko saysit's clear the military action was carefully planned.
"I understand that you need to attack places where you wouldn't expect it," he told CBC News in an emailed statement. "That's what the Ukrainian Armed Forces did. If we used new tactics and new technologies, that's definitely a plus."
Several observers who spoke to CBC News noted that the part of the border where Ukraine launched its offensive was not well defended.
"They weren't the most high-quality units," said John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a U.S. think-tank.
Add in the fact that the incursion may not have been expected though a New York Times report suggests Russian military leaders didn't act on a warning about a potential attack and you can see how the wheels could be set in motion for a successful result.
"[Ukraine] achieved a significant element of surprise in the early days of the offensive," said Hardie, who predicted that Russia's defensive efforts "will become more coherent" in the days ahead.
Bigger questions beyond Kursk
Would Ukraine's approach have worked as well in an area where Russia had more experienced troops? That's an open question, said CNA's Bendett.
And whether it can happen againwill depend on Russia's ability to come up with counter-measures against the tactics used in Kursk, he said.
Nick Reynolds, a research fellow in land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute in the U.K., is skepticalof the significance ofdrones and electronic warfare to the events in Kursk.
He said via email that it's unclear how much planning was needed for the Kursk offensive, and also to what degree Ukrainehas been able to integrate itsdrone-and-jamming tactics with planned manoeuvres.
It also remains to be seen if Ukraine can repeat "the same effects when they are not conducting a meticulously pre-planned operation."
With files from Reuters
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