Peace in Ukraine depends on the international community achieving something it has been unable to do for years: changing Russian President Vladimir Putins mind.

After centralizing power over two decades at Russias helm, Putin now singlehandedly makes the key decisions about his countrys national security policy. Ukraine and Western governments are working on three tracks to make him stop his invasion: They are trying to persuade Putin directly, while simultaneously pressuring Russians who might influence him with unprecedented global financial sanctions that Western nations say will continue until the Ukraine offensive ends. And they are stiffening Ukraines resistance to the onslaught to show that an easy, cheap military win is not an option for Putin.

But one week into the war, Western officials are extremely pessimistic about the chances of the Russian leader choosing to stop fighting and pursue a diplomatic settlement, saying they know little about Putins plans and are alarmed by the indications that they do have.

Right now, I frankly do not see how anybody can get through to Putin, said Vaira Vike-Freiberga, a former president of Latvia who met with her Russian counterpart repeatedly. He is so dead set on rewriting history ... he has invented a parallel universe in which he lives mentally.

As Russian forces advance toward the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, the man is about to commit mass genocide, she continued. What is anybody going to tell him that hasnt been told already by President [Joe] Biden, [British] Prime Minister [Boris] Johnson, [German] Chancellor [Olaf] Scholz? ... This man is beyond being reached by words and certainly way beyond logic.

French President Emmanuel Macron is the most prominent Western leader to maintain a dialogue with Putin. In a Thursday call, the Russian leader told his French counterpart that he will continue his assault and may even demand more concessions from the Ukrainians.

There was nothing that Putin said that reassured us, a top French official later told The Economist .

Western officials and analysts say they know what a possible deal would have to achieve: Primarily, it would need to address Putins desire for a greater Russian say over security conditions in his neighborhood while committing him to principles respected by most countries like the right to national sovereignty.

Yet they do not know when to expect him to take the first step towards that settlement and they worry that if such negotiations do come, Putin may simply lay the groundwork for more conflict in the future.

A New Calculus For Putin

Putin watchers are struggling to make sense of the Russian leaders current calculus.

The intelligence community lacks human sources close to him, per The Washington Post , particularly because some Russians who were able to provide such information in recent years have left the country.

Some observers, however, see reason to be nervous about his state of mind.

Putin is not doing well. Hes shouting at staff. His war is behind schedule. This is a dangerous time, a European official told the Post.

Fiona Hill, a Putin biographer who worked on Russia issues at the White House, recently told Politico she sees a new level of visceral emotion in the Russian presidents public remarks, which worries her because he faces few checks and balances within the Kremlin. In handling Putin now, officials must prepare for him to use anything in his arsenal including nuclear weapons and have a plan to respond, Hill said. On Thursday, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov hinted that Russia might unleash chemical weapons and blame the terrifying escalation on the U.S. and Ukraine.

Three possible factors could now push Putin toward the negotiating table.

The first depends on timing: how fast Western military support, from anti-tank missiles to air defense systems and ammunition, gets to the Ukrainians. Such aid is largely coming by land through Poland into western Ukraine, but it will then have to be transported to front lines further east.

If that help has arrived in time to be of any effectiveness to slow down the encirclement of Kyiv and of Kharkiv the most important Ukrainian cities currently under attack then, since Putin has been spinning lies from morning to night, he will easily invent himself a reason why he might stop the aggression, Vike-Frieberga said.